Monday Night Football on NFL gives us one game and one game only: Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams. The Buffalo Bills travel west to face the Los Angeles Rams on Monday, October 12, 2026, and the anytime touchdown model has run 47 players through the board. When you have a single-game slate, every line matters. The noise goes down. The signal stands out. Here is where I am playing.
My Best Play: Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams RB (+280)
I am leading with this one because it is the number that made me stop scrolling. Blake Corum carries a 30.9% model touchdown probability with a HIGH confidence tier. The market has him priced at +280, implying a 26.3% chance. That is a gap of more than four percentage points between the model and the market, on a HIGH-data number. On a one-game slate, that kind of spread is exactly the type of situation I am hunting for early in the week before the market catches up.
Running backs with genuine goal-line roles tend to punch in touchdowns at a rate the market underestimates, especially in prime time. The model is not guessing here. A HIGH-tier 30.9% means the projection is grounded in real data, not a positional placeholder. At +280, you are getting compensated at a level that beats the model's own risk estimate. That is value in its simplest form. I want to be honest: a 30.9% play misses more often than it hits. That is just math. But over time, backing a HIGH-confidence 30.9% shot at +280 money is the kind of bet that adds up in your favor.
My Pick: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills QB (-120)
Josh Allen at -120 is my second play tonight. The model puts him at 56.0% touchdown probability, rated HIGH confidence, against a market implied of 54.6%. The gap is smaller here than it is on Corum, but the absolute number is what makes this a playable spot. A 56.0% HIGH-tier model probability is one of the largest anytime TD readings you will find on a typical NFL slate. The market is pricing Allen at 54.6% and the model says 56.0%. That means the market is slightly underweighting him, and I am not going to argue with a dual-threat quarterback at a 56.0% probability who is only laying -120.
Quarterbacks who create rushing opportunities give you two separate paths to a touchdown on every drive. That layered upside is baked into the model. At -120, this is not a price that should excite anyone, but when the model's number clears the implied odds on a HIGH-confidence signal, that is a playable bet. I am on Josh Allen tonight.
Why I Passed on Kyren Williams Despite His Lead on the Board
Kyren Williams is the model's number one player on this entire slate. His 58.9% anytime TD probability is the highest figure on the board, rated HIGH confidence. I want to be fully transparent about why he is not my best play tonight. The market has Williams priced at -172, which implies a 63.3% probability. The model says 58.9%. When the market is already demanding more confidence than the model provides, the value is gone. There is no edge left at that price. Williams is genuinely the most likely scorer on this board according to our numbers. If you want to back him, you are not making a reckless bet. You are just making a bet where the market has already closed the gap and then some. I passed because I want the model on my side of the ledger, not the bookmaker's.
The Rest of the Board: Context Only
James Cook (BUF, RB) sits third on the board at 53.1% Model TD% with HIGH confidence and -120 odds (implied 54.6%). His market implied already clears his model number, so there is no gap to exploit there. Puka Nacua (LAR, WR) is at 49.1% HIGH and -125 (implied 55.6%). Again, the market is pricing Nacua above what the model gives. Davante Adams (LAR, WR) checks in at 44.3% HIGH and -105 (implied 51.3%). Market implied at 51.3% against a model of 44.3% means the bookmakers are more bullish on Adams than the model. These are talented players with legitimate touchdown upside. They are just not where the model says the price is favorable.
Tyler Higbee (LAR, TE) is at 31.6% HIGH and +250 (implied 28.6%). The model edges above the implied there. Dalton Kincaid (BUF, TE) is at 28.7% HIGH and +190 (implied 34.5%). In Kincaid's case the market is actually pricing him above the model, so the gap runs against you. Red-zone tight ends can be dangerous in anytime TD markets as a general rule, but none of these players are my plays tonight. I am sticking to Corum and Allen.
Further down the board, several players carry LOW-DATA ratings including Max Klare (LAR, TE) at 13.7% and +2497, Dean Connors (LAR, RB) at 10.4% and +2903, and Skyler Bell (BUF, WR) at 11.3% and +740. When you see a LOW-DATA tag, it means the model has shrunk that number toward a positional baseline. There is simply less information to work with. Read those figures with caution. The model lists them for completeness, not as confident projections. Defensive backs, linebackers, and defensive linemen from both teams occupy the bottom of the board with LOW-DATA ratings and odds ranging into five figures. They are there because any player on the field can technically score. Treat them accordingly.
First Touchdown Board
One quick note on first-TD props before we wrap. The first-touchdown board is ranked by market price only. The model does not estimate first-TD probability directly. The anytime numbers are shown there for context, nothing more. Kyren Williams leads the first-TD board at +450 (implied 18.2%), followed by Puka Nacua at +560 (implied 15.2%), James Cook and Josh Allen at +600 each (implied 14.3%), and Davante Adams at +700 (implied 12.5%). Blake Corum sits at +1748 (implied 5.4%) on the first-TD board. These are long-odds markets where variance is enormous. Even the favorite at +450 fails to score first the vast majority of the time. If you are playing first TD, understand that the model gives you no direct guidance there beyond the anytime probability shown for reference.
Final note on variance. Josh Allen at 56.0% misses roughly four times in ten. Blake Corum at 30.9% misses roughly seven times in ten. No anytime touchdown is a lock. These are probabilities, and probabilities are not promises. The model surfaces where the numbers beat the price. What you do with that information is entirely your own call.
Monday Night Football in Los Angeles is the whole slate. One game, two teams, and a board full of players for our model to evaluate. I am on Blake Corum as my best play at +280 and Josh Allen as my pick at -120. Those are the two spots where the model gives me something to work with at a favorable price. Everything else on the board is context. Watch the game, enjoy the action, and remember that even a great probability play does not guarantee a result on any single night.
All picks are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.
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