• Jets pressure travels. New York owns a 11.8% sack rate generated (100th percentile; sample 34). Tampa Bay’s sack rate allowed is 5.0% (48th percentile; sample 60).

• Where drives end matters. Bucs defense has allowed TDs on only 25.0% of red-zone trips (88th percentile; sample 4), while the Jets have scored TDs on 75.0% of their red-zone chances (77th percentile; sample 4). Small samples, but the clash is clear.

• Explosive pass tug-of-war. Tampa Bay’s explosive pass rate is just 3.3% (16th percentile; sample 60), yet the Jets defense has yielded explosive passes 11.8% of the time (25th percentile; sample 34).

• Short-yardage and goal-line texture. Tampa’s goal-line stuff rate sits at 90.0% (89th percentile; sample 10). That can force teams to the air near the stripe.

• Jets skill traits are boom-capable. NYJ explosive run rate is 12.8% (94th percentile; sample 39) and explosive pass rate 17.4% (94th percentile; sample 23).

• Injuries shape usage. Godwin Out consolidates Tampa targets; Wirfs Out stresses pass pro. Jets have several defensive backs Questionable, which could tilt completion windows.

• Anchor spread: Buccaneers -7.0 (+110) vs Jets +7.0 (-127). Plus-money on the favorite at the key number reflects QB uncertainty for New York and some respect for the Jets defense.

• Anchor total: 44.5 with Over -104 / Under -132. The Under is juiced, matching Tampa’s strong red-zone defense and New York’s QB volatility.

• Jets team total: 17.5 (Over -110, Under -130). Pricing implies a tougher scoring path on the road.

• Bucs team total: 25.0 (Over -120, Under -119). Market expects mid-20s even with OL concerns.

• Mike Evans over 72.5 yards (-119): Godwin Out plus Jets’ explosive-pass leak raises volume.

• Mike Evans anytime TD (-112): Tampa’s 75.0% red-zone TD rate supports favorite target equity.

• Garrett Wilson over 66.5 yards (-120): Jets’ scheme shows a 10.0% explosive design rate; Wilson is the beneficiary.

• Tyrod Taylor under 192.5 pass yards (-119) volatile: Listed Questionable; Bucs’ 61.9% third-down stop rate can cap attempts.

• Breece Hall over 21.5 receiving (-116): Outlet usage fits versus Tampa’s goal-line strength and New York’s pressure profile.

Tampa Bay brings a stout red-zone defense and a star target in Mike Evans. New York brings a top-shelf pass rush and splash-play traits on offense. The biggest variable is who plays quarterback for the Jets and how healthy that unit is.

The market leans favorite and lower scoring: Bucs -7.0 (+110) with a total of 44.5 that tilts to the Under at -132. That setup points to field position, sacks, and short fields deciding the spread.

If the Jets protect and hit a few explosive plays, they can stay live inside the number. If Tampa’s protection holds and Evans wins isolated chances, the home side has a cleaner path to 3-0.

Play it with discipline. Several key names are Questionable, and prices carry real juice. Wait for inactives if you can, size bets to the variance, and respect both defenses in your card.