• Seattle lives on explosives through the air. The Seahawks rank at the top in explosive pass rate (12.3%) and deep pass explosiveness (10.1%). Jacksonville’s defense is middle of the pack in limiting those shots, so contested catches and vertical routes matter.

• Jacksonville’s defense hunts turnovers. The Jags lead the league in turnover generation rate (4.2%). That can erase drives and create short fields for their offense.

• Red zone is a battleground. Seattle’s offense converts 72.2% of trips into touchdowns, while Jacksonville’s defense owns a 64.7% goal-line stuff rate. Power runs and tight-window throws decide points here.

• Pass rush vs protection. Both offenses protect well (SEA 3.5% and JAX 3.4% sack rate allowed), while both defenses lag in converting pressure to sacks (JAX 3.0%, low percentile). Longer developing routes may be available.

• Run game tilt. Seattle’s defense is elite at preventing breakaway runs (0.8% explosive runs allowed). Travis Etienne may need volume and patience over home-run carries.

• Injury volatility in the secondary. Questionable tags for starting DBs on both sides could swing matchups for outside receivers and slot separators.

• Anchor spread: Jaguars -3.0 (+114) — plus money on the key number; turnover edge (JAX 4.2%) can be the difference in a one-score game.

• Anchor total: 46.5 — Over -122 / Under -104. Explosive pass profile for SEA vs scheme-driven shots for JAX support scoring, but juice on the Over is heavy.

• Team totals 23.5: JAX Over 23.5 (-123) ties to SEA’s DB injuries; SEA Over 23.5 (-115) matches their red-zone strength.

• Trevor Lawrence over 228.5 pass yards (-119): Backed by JAX’s 5.6% scheme explosive rate and SEA’s banged-up secondary.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 76.5 rec yards (-119): Fits SEA’s No. 1 explosive pass metrics vs JAX’s average deep-ball containment.

• Kenneth Walker anytime TD (+118): Seattle’s 72.2% red-zone TD rate creates RB scoring chances.

• Travis Etienne over 58.5 rush yards (-120): Role and usage favor a baseline, but note SEA’s elite explosive-run defense. Variance high.

• Dyami Brown over 31.5 rec yards (-120, if active): If he suits up, the number is modest against a secondary with several Questionable tags.

Reminder: prices carry juice; shop for numbers and be mindful of late injury moves. For players listed Questionable, playback risk is higher.

Jacksonville’s edge is on the margins. The Jags protect the quarterback, design explosives with motion and misdirection, and take the ball away. That profile travels, but it also plays at home when the crowd can lift the pass rush on third down.

Seattle’s path runs through chunk plays and clean protection. If the tackles hold up and their top corners are active, the Seahawks can trade blows and finish drives. Their red-zone rate is real and keeps them in every game.

Given the matchups and the injuries, a field-goal game makes sense. The key swing plays are likely a deep shot by Seattle, a timely takeaway by Jacksonville, and short-yardage snaps in the red area.

If you’re betting it, the board points to Jaguars -3.0 (+114) as a plus-money take on a key number and a Total at 46.5 with an eye on late injury news. For props, lean into the passing games but respect volatility on any player carrying a Questionable tag.