• Rams explosive pass vs thin SF rush: Los Angeles sits in the 95th percentile for explosive pass rate and 97th for deep shots. San Francisco’s sack rate generated is only 2.4% (12th percentile), and Bosa is on IR. That tilts time and space toward Matthew Stafford.

• SF run game has struggled for big plays: The 49ers’ explosive run rate is 1.9% (9th percentile). The Rams allow explosive runs at just 2.5% (78th). That points to more 3rd-and-medium for SF.

• Money downs matter: San Francisco’s defense stops 68.0% of third downs (97th percentile). That can force Los Angeles to sustain longer drives and kick more often if red-zone issues show up.

• Formation tendencies: The Rams are under center 74.2% of snaps (100th percentile), which supports play-action and deep crossers. The 49ers are more balanced but use limited no-huddle (3.1%, 12th), which can slow pace.

• Injury tie-ins: With Purdy, Aiyuk, Jennings, and Pearsall Out, San Francisco loses both timing and explosive edges in the pass game. On the other side, Adams being Questionable and Tyler Higbee Doubtful could tweak target distribution for L.A.

• Anchor spread: Rams -7.0 (-152) vs 49ers +7.0 (+110). You pay a premium to lay the key number. Plus money sits with the dog at a full touchdown.

• Anchor total: 46.5 (Over +106, Under -135). The juice leans Under, which fits SF’s short-handed offense against a solid Rams defense.

• Moneyline: Rams -455 / 49ers +341. The market gives L.A. a strong edge at home.

• Rams team total: Over 27.5 (-108). Los Angeles owns a top-tier explosive pass rate, while SF’s pressure and sack conversion sit near the bottom.

• Matthew Stafford Over 236.5 pass (-120): LAR explosive pass 10.6% vs SF sack rate generated 2.4% suggests clean pockets and volume.

• Puka Nacua Over 91.5 rec (-120): L.A. ranks 97th percentile on deep shots. If Adams sits or is limited, target share can condense.

• Christian McCaffrey Under 63.5 rush (-119): SF lacks explosive runs (1.9%). Rams limit long gains on the ground (2.5% allowed).

• Mac Jones Under 214.5 pass (-119): QB is Questionable and his top WRs are Out. That caps yardage upside. Note the variance if he is fully cleared.

  Always check inactives. Props tied to players listed Questionable carry extra risk. Respect the juice on heavy-lean totals.

The matchup tilts toward the Rams’ passing ceiling. Los Angeles pushes the ball downfield and can create explosives off under-center looks. If the tackles hold up, Stafford should find windows.

San Francisco’s best card is defense on money downs. The 49ers get off the field at a high rate. If they can force field goals and win hidden yards, they can keep this close.

Injuries shape everything. The 49ers are without multiple pass-game starters and their top rusher on defense. The Rams have key Questionables at receiver and along the line. Those statuses can swing both the spread and props.

Market signals point to a Rams win in a medium-total game. Play prices, not picks. If you like L.A., decide between the moneyline safety and the -7 tax. If you attack props, tie them to the explosive-pass edge and be ready to pivot when the inactives drop.