Underdog Value and Pitching Duels Highlight MLB Betting Picks

Underdog Alert: Cardinals and Brewers Provide Value

When Shohei Ohtani is on the mound, it’s usually a no-go to fade the Dodgers—but the Cardinals at +175? That’s some spicy value. Matthew Liberatore has quietly been putting together solid outings, and with the Dodgers struggling to string together offense, there’s a case to be made for the Birds on the Moneyline. The Cardinals’ lineup is heating up, and while Liberatore won’t outduel Ohtani pitch-for-pitch, he doesn’t have to. Just keep it close and let the bullpen (and maybe a late bomb or two) do the rest.

Same goes for the Brewers, who are being oddly disrespected in their matchup against the Braves. Spencer Strider is getting love from the books, but Jose Quintana has been quietly reliable—especially on the road. Milwaukee’s lineup isn’t flashy, but it's been productive, and the bullpen has held up well under pressure. At better than even money, the Brewers are a solid value play with a live chance to win outright.

Pitching Duels and the Power of the Under

If you’re a fan of low-scoring games, today’s slate is your buffet. The Guardians and Mets game had the makings of an under until chaos erupted in the sixth inning. Still, with guys like Gavin Williams and David Peterson on the bump, don’t be surprised to see another tight contest in their next matchup. Similarly, the Reds and Cubs feature two promising arms in Andrew Abbott and Kade Horton—both of whom have been dealing. Abbott hasn’t allowed a run in four straight starts. Yes, four. The under 8 is worth a look, and you might even consider splitting the unit between the first five and the full game.

The Orioles and Phillies also scream “pitcher’s duel.” Trevor Rogers and his opponent have been effective, and Baltimore has been a top under team away from home. If you’re anticipating a 4-3 type game, you’re not alone. The under here has a solid foundation backed by bullpen strength and struggling bats.

Run Line Favorites That Actually Make Sense

Let’s be real—laying -250 on a ML isn’t fun unless you’re a fan of burning money. But on the run line? Now we’re talking. The Mariners, behind George Kirby, are hosting the White Sox and Jonathan Cannon, who has been, let’s say, generous to opposing offenses. Kirby has been a force at home, allowing two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six home starts. Seattle runs better at home and should be able to pounce on Cannon early and often. Lay the -1.5 and feel good about it.

The Padres are another solid run line candidate. Nestor Cortes is back and looked sharp in his last outing. Tony Disco is back for Arizona, but he’s been more bomb factory than innings eater. The D-backs’ struggles against lefties at home also tilt this matchup in San Diego’s favor. A -1.5 on the road might scare some, but the Padres’ bullpen has quietly become one of the best in baseball, which helps seal close covers late.

Royals Keep Rolling and Offering Value

Michael Wacha is quietly putting together a stretch of consistency, giving up one earned run in each of his last three starts. The Royals are a live underdog against the Red Sox, who are trotting out Dustin May in his Boston debut. May hasn’t been sharp lately and could struggle to settle in with a new team. Kansas City at +110 or better is worth the gamble, especially with Wacha’s current form and the Red Sox showing vulnerability to right-handed pitching.

Let’s also not ignore the total here. With May’s control issues and the Royals’ recent offensive uptick, the over 9.5 could get there late if this turns into a bullpen battle. That said, if you’re only picking one side, take the dog with the hot hand.

Overs Could Rule in a Few Ugly Matchups

The Astros and Marlins matchup is a sneaky over 8.5 play, with both teams sending volatile arms to the mound. Spencer Arroyo and Jansen Junk have been anything but consistent, and Miami’s bullpen has been leaky. Houston’s offense is hitting its stride, and this could be a 6-4 type of game.

The Rays and Angels are another over candidate. Both starting pitchers have been shaky, and the Angels’ offense looked surprisingly lively in their last outing. If the total sits at 8.5 or lower, you’ve got the green light to hit the over.

Rockies Still Can’t Pitch, Jays Still Can Crush

Even with Kyle Freeland scratched, the Rockies’ pitching woes are alive and well. Toronto hung double digits on them and launched baseballs into orbit. Bo Bichette hit two bombs, and the Jays’ offense continues to feast at Coors. If the total is set at 11 or lower tomorrow, consider the over again. But if books bump it to 11.5, tread carefully—it’s a thin value window, even at altitude.

Toronto’s bullpen remains strong, and if they can get five solid innings from José Berríos or whoever starts next, they should be able to keep the Rockies under control. For bettors, the run line is the way to go here, given the inflated moneyline prices at Coors.

Key Takeaways

• Underdog Value: Cardinals (+175) and Brewers (+120) offer sharp value against overvalued favorites.
• Pitching Duels Galore: Look to the under in Reds-Cubs, Orioles-Phillies, and Guardians-Mets.
• Run Line Specials: Back the Mariners and Padres to win by multiple runs against weak starters.
• Royals Heating Up: Wacha’s recent form and May’s instability make Kansas City a smart dog pick.
• Over Targets: Astros-Marlins and Rays-Angels are both ripe for offensive explosions.
• Coors Chaos Continues: Jays bats are hot and Rockies arms are not—monitor totals closely.