Zion Williamson is the engine. He drives 14.4 times per game at 63% true shooting. Utah's perimeter defense cannot contain him. Saddiq Bey is hotter still, averaging 22.2 PPG in recent form, up from his season average of 17.2. Earlier this season, he dropped 42 points on Utah. When one scorer cannot be slowed and another is on fire, the defense breaks. Utah isn't #30 by accident. It's the result of poor scheme and roster fit.

The contrarian case leans on Keyonte George and Lauri Markkanen, both efficient scorers. But in tonight's NBA action, individual scoring can't carry a broken team defense. Utah is 1-2 at home over the last five games. The Pelicans are primed to take advantage. This is one of the clearest matchups on the board.

• Utah ranks #30 in defensive rating, allowing 125.9 PPG. New Orleans averaged 119.4 last five, creating mismatch conditions.
• Zion averages 14.4 drives per game at 63% true shooting, the type of volume that shreds Utah's perimeter-focused defense.
• Saddiq Bey is 22.2 PPG in recent form and dropped 42 on Utah earlier this season, proof this matchup favors New Orleans.
• Utah is 1-2 at home in the last five games, so home court advantage is minimal in this spot.
• Keyonte George and Lauri Markkanen are both efficient, but individual scoring can't fix a team defense this broken.
• Teams in a W3 vs L4 spot against a league-worst defense are 38-22 ATS over three seasons. Pattern wins here.

This is a W3 team with high-volume scorers against the league's worst defense. Utah's 18-41 record and -7.6 net rating tell the whole story. Teams in this exact situation are 38-22 ATS over three seasons. I don't overthink it. Pelicans -6.5 is the pick. Stack Saddiq Bey Over 20.5 PPG as confirmation. The variance exists. George can get hot. Utah can steal one. But the pattern and the matchup both point the same direction.

Pelicans minus six and a half. Bey over 20.5. Those are the edges tonight.