Boston has one edge Vegas might be undervaluing. Their pace is glacial at 95.5 possessions per game, 30th slowest in the league. That matters against Denver. The Nuggets want the game fast and loose. They want high-volume possessions where Jokic can operate and their shooters can fire. Fewer possessions means fewer chances for Denver to escape. Boston knows this. Watch for them to set up in a half-court shell and make Denver grind through set plays.

The first time these teams played, back in January, Denver won 114-110 at home. That was close. But Boston wasn't playing like this back then. Jaylen Brown is averaging 27.1 points per game in his last ten with 48% shooting. He's going to attack that Denver defense relentlessly.

• Boston's pace (95.5 possessions per game, 30th slowest) will shrink the game. Denver averages 124.4 PPG in their last ten, but pace matters, so expect closer to 110-115 per team.
• Jaylen Brown (27.1 PPG L10, 48% FG) vs Denver's weak defense (ranked 22nd). Brown is going to have a field day attacking downhill.
• Nikola Jokic (26.0 PPG L10, down from 28.8 season avg) faces Boston's smothering defense. If he's off-rhythm early, Denver's role players get isolated and less efficient.
• Possession management is the game. Boston will want to keep this under 100 possessions per team. Denver will want the opposite.
• Denver's rest (4 days vs 2) is real, but team form matters more in the playoffs. Boston's momentum and execution are genuine threats.
• Late-game execution determines the winner. Both teams have playoff-caliber talent, so don't expect a blowout either direction.

The best angle here is pace and defense. Boston plays slow half-court basketball. That's their identity now. Denver's elite offense thrives in transitions and fast-paced chaos. Fewer possessions directly hurt Denver and benefit Boston. If the game stays under 95 possessions per team, Boston wins this handily.

But here's the caveat: this is medium confidence, not high. Denver has rest on their side and Jokic is still the best player on the court. The first matchup proved Denver can execute. If Denver gets out to an early lead and Boston can't stay with them, the rest advantage kicks in late. Respect the contrarian angle, but form and defense win here.