Under 242.5 (HIGH confidence, -104): Our model projects 240.2 total, a 2.3-point gap below the market line that represents genuine edge. Both defenses sit 29th and 30th in the league, but Utah's back-to-back fatigue will collapse pace from 102+ to approximately 94 possessions as the game wears on. Thin benches on both sides accelerate that slowdown. This is the primary play of the night, and it also serves as the anchor leg of the SGP with Jazz +3.0 and George Over 24.5, which prices out at +410 with all three legs converging on the same game script.

Miami Heat -13.0 (HIGH confidence): Our blended projection puts the final at 119.5-106.0, a 13.5-point Miami margin that clears the -13.0 line by half a point. Brooklyn's road scoring margin of minus-13.0 on the season already tells you where the floor is. Miami's pace, fourth-ranked defense, and three-star core make this the primary play of the night. This is a 15-to-20 point win waiting to happen.

Tyler Herro Over 21.5 Points (HIGH confidence): Herro averages 21.1 PPG on 60.2 true shooting percentage and now absorbs Powell's 22.5-point offensive workload directly. He drives 9.5 times per game at 61.9 percent in those situations, and Brooklyn has no credible rim protector to deter him. In a game Miami controls from the opening tip, Herro sees 35-plus minutes and elevated usage through three quarters. Projection: 23-26 points.

Under 239.0 at +100 is outstanding value relative to the model edge. Our projection of 237.1 sits 1.9 points below this line, and plus-money on an under is rare. LeBron and Reaves will control the pace in half-court sets, and Denver without Gordon loses the offensive-spacing creator who stretches defenses and inflates scoring.