Jalen Brunson Over 24.5 Points (-145), high confidence. Brunson averages 30.4 PPG in his last 10 games and 27.7 PPG against San Antonio in three prior meetings this season. He posted 30 points in Game 1 shooting 12-for-31. His drive volume (14.8 per game) generates free throws and pull-up attempts that hold up even on inefficient-shooting nights. The Knicks' offensive structure concentrates usage in his hands in crunch time. 24.5 is well below his recent floor. This is the cleanest prop on the slate.

Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 Rebounds (-141), high confidence. Wembanyama averages 11.5 RPG for the season, but his last 10 games show 13.8 RPG. In three games against the Knicks this season, he averaged 12.7 RPG. A slower, more physical playoff game creates fewer transition sequences and more contested half-court boards, the exact conditions that push his rebounding up. The 11.5 line sits below both his recent trend and his series average versus New York. The Under on the total and this rebounding prop point in the same direction.

First Basket: Victor Wembanyama (+333). Wembanyama scores the first basket in 25% of his home starts. San Antonio wins the opening tip 78.2% of games at Frost Bank Center. As the tallest player on the floor and his team's designated tip-winner, Wembanyama gets the first possession in the majority of home games and his first-shot frequency (27.8%) confirms immediate involvement. At +333, you are getting better than 3-to-1 on the most likely individual first basket scorer in this game. The convergence of tip dominance, first-shot frequency, and home venue makes this a clean value play.

Knicks +5.5 (+108), medium confidence. Our model has this at a 3-point Spurs win (109.6-106.7). The market is offering 5.5. That is nearly 3 points of extra cushion above the projected margin. The Knicks just won in this building, went 3-0 on the road in their last 5 games, and are built specifically to exploit Fox's matchup problem. At +108, you are being paid to take the side that already proved its formula works in Game 1. This is the core play of the night.

De'Aaron Fox Under 14.5 Points (-115), medium confidence. Fox averages 24.1 PPG in his last 10 games. Against the Knicks this season across three games, he averaged 13.3 PPG on 35.2% shooting from the field. New York's pick-and-roll defense cuts off his transition reads and forces him into contested pull-ups rather than rim attacks. With the total expected to stay controlled and his specific matchup working against him, the Under on his points is a natural complement to the Knicks' defensive thesis.

Stephon Castle Over 5.5 Assists (-204), medium confidence. Castle averages 7.4 APG for the season and 7.2 APG in his last 10 games. He is San Antonio's primary facilitator behind Wembanyama, and in a playoff game where the Spurs need more ball movement to compensate for Fox's limitations, his creation role only expands. The -204 price reflects market awareness of his baseline. The 5.5 line is set conservatively enough that his floor covers it in most game scripts.