De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 assists (-169) , HIGH confidence. This is the cleanest edge on the entire slate. Fox averages 6.2 APG on the season, 7.0 APG over his last ten (trending up), and 6.3 APG across six games against New York. Every single split lands comfortably above 5.5. His 12.1 drives per game and 28.6 AST% lock in his role as the primary distributor. In a half-court elimination game where Wembanyama needs to be fed in controlled sets, Fox becomes even more central to how San Antonio generates offense. The juice at -169 is fair for a prop with this level of cross-split confirmation. Bet this one confidently.

First Basket: Victor Wembanyama (+333). San Antonio wins the opening tip 78.8% of the time, the highest tip-win rate in this matchup by a significant margin. Wembanyama's first-basket rate on the team is 25.3%, the best on the Spurs, representing 19 first baskets in 75 starts. He takes the opening shot on more than one in four possessions when San Antonio controls the tip, backed by a 31.6% usage rate and 5.9 drives per game to generate volume. Near-certain tip possession combined with the league's best first-basket rate at this position is a decisive combination at +333.

New York Knicks +4.5 (+110) , MEDIUM confidence. This is the primary play on the board. Our blended model projects San Antonio winning by roughly 3.0 points (109.9 to 106.9), but the market consensus sits near Spurs -5.0, a 2-point gap working in your favor before you account for any contextual factors. You are getting plus money on a team that covers simply by staying within four points. Knicks lead the series 3-2, Brunson owns the clutch, the Spurs are 0-2 at home in the Finals, and a reported wave of Knicks fans has neutralized the crowd. This is a number the market is getting wrong.

Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 rebounds (-137) , MEDIUM confidence. Wembanyama's last-ten rebounding average is 13.8 RPG, well clear of the 11.5 line. His season average sits right at 11.5 and his vs-NYK mark across six games is 11.3, both of which set a reasonable floor. The recent trend is clearly running higher. His defensive and offensive rebounding rates are elite, and a slower playoff pace gives him more time to locate and secure boards. The fatigue concern is real in terms of his scoring and clutch production, but his motor on the glass specifically has not shown the same drop-off. At -137 this reflects his recent ceiling, not his average.

Josh Hart Over 8.5 rebounds (-105) , MEDIUM confidence. Hart's last-ten average is 8.6 RPG and his vs-SAS mark across five games this season is 9.6 RPG. Both sit above the line. His season average of 7.4 RPG understates his expanded playoff rebounding role. His defensive rebounding rate and two-way board presence make him a reliable over target, and the matchup history against San Antonio specifically is the most compelling piece of evidence here. At -105, this is underpriced given what the vs-opponent data shows.

OG Anunoby Under 18.5 points (-109) , MEDIUM confidence. Anunoby's last-ten average is 15.3 PPG and trending down 1.4 points from his season mark of 16.7. His 26.0 PPG vs-SAS number is real but it is pulled up by outlier outings, and his usage rate of 19.4% keeps his ceiling capped when Brunson and Karl-Towns are commanding the offensive flow. Under 18.5 at -109 plays against a line that over-indexes on his best San Antonio showings rather than his current form trajectory. He is a spacing threat but not a volume scorer in this matchup.