Toronto is stuck in neutral. The Raptors are 5-5 their last ten games and just 3-4 at home. More telling: they already played the Spurs this season and lost badly, 103-121. That game wasn't close. This matchup has a familiar script.

The Spurs also have rest working in their favor. They have three days off versus Toronto's two. For a team playing elite defense, those extra hours matter. The Raptors will need to be sharp at home. So far this season, sharp isn't their identity.

• San Antonio's defense forces Toronto into tough looks early. The Raptors' offense ranks 17th in the league, and they'll struggle against the Spurs' third-ranked defense.
• Victor Wembanyama continues to shoot like a sniper: 50.8% from the field, 35.8% from three. That level of efficiency punishes smaller, versatile defenses like Toronto's.
• Toronto's home court hasn't been reliable. They're 3-4 at Scotiabank Arena over ten games. San Antonio is 4-1 on the road in that same span. The home-court edge vanishes against great visiting teams.
• Rest and momentum compound each other. The Spurs' three-day break lets them execute pick-and-roll offense cleanly while their defense stays locked in.
• Toronto's problem isn't talent. It's consistency. Scoring 112 one night and 110 the next tells you this team can't string together reliable offensive quarters.

The best angle is San Antonio -4.5 combined with Under 226.0. You're betting that elite defense travels. This season, the Spurs have proved it does. They've come into every arena, executed their system, and controlled the game. Toronto's inconsistent shooting and weak home record make this spot clear.

One caveat: nine-game winning streaks occasionally end. But this isn't a fluke. It's elite execution on both ends. That's the difference between a good run and a real one.