Toronto's road success isn't luck. It's system. A #6 DRTG on the road combined with their pace control creates a rhythm that traveling teams rarely find. Brandon Ingram (21.8 PPG season, but averaging 26.5 against Washington) and Scottie Barnes (19.1 PPG, elite two-way) form a perimeter pairing that eats weak defenses whole. Washington? They've got Trae Young's historically bad 126.2 DRTG anchoring their defense, a liability Toronto's multiple ball-handlers will exploit all night long.

The Wizards are 16-42 for a reason. Their offensive rating sits at #29 (109.0), their defensive rating is league-worst, and they're getting outscored by nearly 10 PPG in their last five games. Toronto doesn't just win these spots, they demolish them. In tonight's NBA action, expect the Raptors to take control early and extend it relentlessly.

• Toronto's #6 road defense (111.7 DRTG) versus Washington's league-worst #28 defense (119.8 DRTG). That's not a matchup, it's target practice.
• Brandon Ingram has averaged 26.5 PPG against Washington this season. No Wizards perimeter defender can stick with him.
• Scottie Barnes' clutch FG% (58.3%) and two-way excellence create mismatches at every level. Washington has no answer.
• Trae Young's 126.2 DRTG is exploitable. Toronto's ball-handlers (Quickley 5.9 APG, Ingram 10.1 drives per game) will attack downhill all night.
• Washington's last five games: L3, -9.6 PPG margin. Toronto's road record: 64.3%. Talent and intent separated by a wide margin.
• Blowout potential is real. Raptors are positioned to cover by halftime and extend in the second half.

The spread at -14 is accurate. It reflects how bad Washington is defensively and how excellent Toronto is on the road. The real value is the Over 226.5, where our 1.7-point edge gives you an edge. Don't overthink this spot. Take the Raptors, take the Over, and move on. The only caveat: respect variance. But elite road teams crushing league-worst defenses is about as close to a sure thing as betting gets.