Question 1

What is an anytime touchdown scorer bet?

Accepted Answer

An anytime touchdown scorer (anytime TD) bet wins if the named player scores a touchdown at any point in the game, in regulation or overtime. Rushing and receiving touchdowns count for the player who carries or catches the ball; a quarterback throwing a touchdown does not count as scoring one himself.

Question 2

How is the anytime TD board built?

Accepted Answer

Our model estimates each listed player’s probability of scoring a touchdown from years of play-by-play and usage history: carries and targets near the goal line, team offense, role and matchup. The board ranks every listed player in every game on the slate by that probability, next to the market odds at the time the board was built.

Question 3

What does the Model TD% number mean?

Accepted Answer

It is the model’s calibrated estimate of the chance that player scores a touchdown in that game. Calibrated means that across many players given, say, 30%, roughly 3 in 10 should score. A 40% player fails to score more often than he scores. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and no single result proves the number right or wrong.

Question 4

What do the HIGH, MEDIUM and LOW DATA tiers mean?

Accepted Answer

Tiers describe how much recent, relevant history backs the estimate. HIGH means a settled role with plenty of data. MEDIUM means the estimate rests on less evidence. LOW DATA marks players with thin history, such as rookies or players in a new role; their probability is pulled toward a typical value for their position and should be read with extra caution. Every listed player stays on the board whichever tier they fall in.

Question 5

Why is a player missing from the board?

Accepted Answer

Only for one reason: our roster check could not confirm the player is active for the game. Touchdown markets sometimes list players who are injured, inactive or no longer on the team, and we filter those out rather than show a price on someone who cannot play. We never drop a player because the matchup is hard to model.

Question 6

What is the first TD scorer section?

Accepted Answer

First touchdown scorer is a separate, longer-odds market: the player must score the game’s first touchdown. Our model does not currently estimate first TD probabilities, so that section is ranked by market price only, with each player’s anytime TD probability shown for context.

Question 7

When does the board update?

Accepted Answer

Anytime TD markets are typically listed about two days before kickoff, and the board is published once they are. Between slates the page shows the next slate notice, and every past board is kept unedited in the archive, exactly as published before kickoff.

Question 8

Can the odds on the board change?

Accepted Answer

Yes. The odds shown are the market offers captured when the board was built, and markets keep moving until kickoff. Prices that were already more than two hours old at build time are greyed out and marked stale.

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