Defense Rules: Bet May's Legs in Pats-Seahawks Super Bowl

Defense, Discipline, and Drake May: Betting the Patriots-Seahawks Showdown

Super Bowl 60 is shaping up to be a gritty, grind-it-out battle between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. While the headlines might focus on flashy offenses and star receivers, the real story here is defense, deception, and Drake May's legs. Let's break down what bettors need to know heading into this chess match disguised as a football game.

Seattle’s Defense is Built to Bully

Seattle's defense has been turning heads all season, especially against the run. They're not just good , they’re historically good, ranking number one in run defense DVOA. That’s bad news for a Patriots team that leans heavily on its ground game and hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard.

The Seahawks' ability to generate pressure without blitzing (fourth in pressure rate with just four pass rushers) allows them to drop more defenders into coverage, creating nightmares for young QBs like Drake May. Expect Seattle to mix in dime packages, zone looks, and bracket coverage to confuse the Patriots' signal caller and clog up throwing lanes.

Meanwhile, Seattle's secondary is deep and aggressive. With Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis capable of shadowing top receivers and a safety net behind them, the Patriots’ passing options shrink fast. Tight end Hunter Henry might be the only semi-reliable target, especially with linebackers and safeties being the Seahawks' soft spot in coverage. But even that play is a gamble, not a guarantee.

Drake May: Running for His Life

When in doubt, run it out , that might be Drake May’s mantra this Sunday. The young quarterback has already shown increased usage in the designed run game since the bye week, doubling his rushing market share from 4% to 8%. He’s also scrambling more efficiently, averaging 10.8 yards per scramble post-bye.

Given Seattle’s pressure rate and the Patriots’ shaky interior O-line (we’re looking at you, Will Campbell and Jared Wilson), May will likely be flushed from the pocket early and often. Don’t be surprised if he racks up rushing yards out of necessity, not design. Betting over 36.5 rushing yards for May feels like one of the more reliable props on the board.

With limited open receivers and constant pressure, May might default to his instincts and take off. He won’t have time to overthink things , and frankly, that might be a good thing for New England’s offense.

Seattle’s Offensive X-Factor: JSN

On the other side of the ball, Seattle’s offense isn’t immune to challenges. The Patriots have a strong run-stopping unit when Milton Williams is healthy, and they’re particularly stingy against outside runs. That could limit Kenneth Walker’s impact on the ground, making Seattle look to the air for production.

Enter Jackson Smith-Njigba (JSN), the smooth route-running receiver who’s become the Seahawks’ most consistent weapon. The Patriots have two basic options to slow him down: stick Christian Gonzalez on him in man coverage or go full Belichick and bracket him with press coverage underneath and safety help over the top. Either way, JSN will demand attention, and that could open things up for others , or result in forced throws and turnovers.

Still, JSN has scored in over half his games and is getting max snap counts in this one. He’s also the most likely candidate to break open a tight game with one big play. His anytime touchdown prop at -110 is worth a long look, especially in a game where scoring chances might be scarce.

Team Totals and Totals You Should Trust

In a game where both defenses are elite against the run, and both offensive lines have vulnerabilities, points could be at a premium. That makes the under on Seattle’s team total (25.5) an intriguing play. The Patriots' defense specializes in disguising coverages and generating interior pressure , a combo that’s disrupted Seattle’s rhythm before.

New England’s offense, meanwhile, is expected to struggle against Seattle’s swarming D. Outside of Hunter Henry and maybe a few gadget plays, there’s little reason to believe they’ll find the end zone multiple times. A final score prediction in the 20-16 or 23-12 range feels realistic, with special teams and field position likely to play oversized roles.

If you're looking for a same-game parlay, consider combining JSN anytime touchdown with AJ Barner anytime touchdown (+240). Barner could be a sneaky red zone option, especially since the Patriots are vulnerable to tight ends near the goal line. That combo pays out 6-1 and includes the two most likely scorers on Seattle’s side of the ball.

Takeaways

• Bet Drake May’s legs: Over 36.5 rushing yards is a strong play given Seattle’s pressure and the Patriots’ O-line issues.
• Fade Seattle’s team total: Under 25.5 points offers value against a well-coached Patriots defense that thrives on game planning and discipline.
• JSN is the key playmaker: Consider him for anytime TD and MVP props , he’s the best player on the field.
• Low-scoring battle likely: Both teams have stout run defenses and inconsistent offenses. Expect a lot of punting and field goals.
• Look for tight end value: Hunter Henry and AJ Barner could see red zone targets as other options get shut down.

This game isn’t about fireworks , it’s about fundamentals and finding small edges. Bet smart, don’t chase the octopus prop, and enjoy watching a good old-fashioned defensive duel. Here’s to closing out the season with a win , or at least a well-reasoned sweat.

Links:

• Drake May over 36.5 rushing yards prop
• Seattle Seahawks team total under 25.5
• JSN anytime touchdown (-110)
• AJ Barner anytime touchdown (+240)
• JSN + Barner touchdown parlay (+600 at DraftKings)