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The Call
Win probability lands with picks the day before kickoff; live market pricing follows once books post prices.
Picks drop the day before kickoff
The model runs after final injury reports. Until then the story below is the substance, and it updates daily.
The Wire
DET @ IND · odds in decimalNothing on the wire for this game yet. Line moves, picks and scores land here.
Detroit Lions vs Indianapolis Colts Game Preview
Detroit last season ranked 84th in explosive pass rate, 80th in sack generation, and 88th in points per drive. Indianapolis ranked 94th in points per drive with third-down conversion at the 84th percentile and red zone conversion at the 84th percentile, building drives through efficiency and finishing rather than explosion.
The offensive gap is in explosive passing: Detroit at 84th percentile, Indianapolis at 38th, a 46-point difference that favors the Lions' vertical game. The Colts sustained drives better once they began, with a 43-point gap in third-down conversion over Detroit. Detroit's pass rush (80th pctl) meets a Colts line that protected at the 78th percentile, a roughly even edge battle.
Check back the day before the game for the full preview and picks.
Detroit Lions vs Indianapolis Colts Key Insights
- Detroit's explosive pass rate (84th pctl last season) against Indianapolis's pass defense, given a 46-point gap between the teams' passing explosion profiles
- Indianapolis's third-down conversion (84th pctl last season) versus Detroit's (41st pctl), as the Colts sustain drives at a notably higher rate once they begin moving the ball
- Detroit's sack generation (80th pctl last season) against an Indianapolis offensive line that protected at the 78th percentile, a competitive edge battle with a slight lean toward the Lions
Key Players
Passing YardsDET
Luke Altmyer
86YDS
9/13QB
Rushing YardsDET
Joshua Dobbs
53YDS
2 CAR, 1 TDQB
Receiving YardsDET
Jackson Meeks
33YDS
4 RECWR
SacksDET
DJ Wonnum
1SACKS
LB
TacklesDET
Chuck Clark
4TOT
S
Passing YardsIND
Riley Leonard
62YDS
7/14QB
Rushing YardsIND
Anderson Castle
41YDS
8 CARRB
Receiving YardsIND
Coleman Owen
39YDS
1 RECWR
SacksIND
Cameron Ball
1SACKS
DT
TacklesIND
Austin Ajiake
6TOT
LB
Recent Form2025 season
Detroit Lions
L29-24Pittsburgh Steelers
L23-10Minnesota Vikings
W19-16Chicago Bears
L16-14Cincinnati Bengals
W17-13Washington Commanders
Indianapolis Colts
L48-27San Francisco 49ers
L23-17Jacksonville Jaguars
L38-30Houston Texans
L34-6Atlanta Falcons
Early look at Detroit Lions vs Indianapolis Colts. Full preview and picks land the day before the game.
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