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The Call
Win probability lands with picks the day before kickoff; live market pricing follows once books post prices.
Picks drop the day before kickoff
The model runs after final injury reports. Until then the story below is the substance, and it updates daily.
The Wire
KC @ MIA · odds in decimalNothing on the wire for this game yet. Line moves, picks and scores land here.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins Game Preview
Kansas City scores at the 88th percentile per drive and generates explosive run plays at the 84th percentile, operating at a fast tempo (94th percentile). Miami's offense faces a structural problem at the line of scrimmage, ranking at the 0th percentile in protecting the quarterback, the worst mark in the league, alongside a 9th percentile early-down success rate and a 5th percentile redzone conversion mark.
Miami's passing attack does generate big plays (81st percentile), providing one path to impact. Kansas City's pass rush ranks at the 38th percentile, meaning Miami's own protection issues are the primary concern rather than the opposing front.
Check back the day before the game for the full preview and picks.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins Key Insights
- Miami's historically vulnerable offensive line (0th pctl in sack protection) and how that structural weakness affects the passing game regardless of opponent pass-rush rate
- Whether Miami's explosive passing attack (81st pctl) can generate enough big plays to offset bottom-10 early-down success and redzone conversion
- Kansas City's explosive running game (84th pctl) against a Miami defense that generates almost no pass rush (6th pctl)
Key Players
Passing YardsKC
Patrick Mahomes
566YDS
47/74, 5 TD, 1 INTQB
Rushing YardsKC
Kenneth Walker III
290YDS
47 CAR, 1 TDRB
Receiving YardsKC
Travis Kelce
172YDS
12 REC, 1 TDTE
SacksKC
Nohl Williams
1SACKS
CB
TacklesKC
Nick Bolton
17TOT
LB
Passing YardsMIA
Malik Willis
417YDS
29/50, 1 TD, 1 INTQB
Rushing YardsMIA
De'Von Achane
110YDS
31 CARRB
Receiving YardsMIA
Caleb Douglas
113YDS
7 RECWR
TacklesMIA
Jacob Rodriguez
22TOT
LB
Recent Form2025 season
Kansas City Chiefs
L20-12Los Angeles Rams
L16-15Tampa Bay Buccaneers
W31-10Denver Broncos
Miami Dolphins
L20-7Washington Commanders
L26-3New York Giants
L17-12Atlanta Falcons
L27-13Las Vegas Raiders
L35-13San Francisco 49ers
Early look at Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins. Full preview and picks land the day before the game.
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