NFL→Game Previews→Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET
@
AT&T Stadium

The Call

Win probability, price movement and our picks · TB @ DAL
Win probability lands with picks the day before kickoff; live market pricing follows once books post prices.
Picks drop the day before kickoff
The model runs after final injury reports. Until then the story below is the substance, and it updates daily.

The Wire

TB @ DAL · odds in decimal
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Game Preview

Dallas has been one of the league's most efficient scoring offenses, ranking 98th in points per drive, 94th in redzone touchdown rate, and 88th in third down conversion. Their pass protection sits at the 81st percentile, giving the offense time to operate. Tampa Bay's offense faces a difficult structural situation: their sack rate allowed ranks at the 0th percentile, the worst mark in the league, and their redzone touchdown rate is 6th. The Buccaneers have ranked 19th in explosive pass rate and 11th in explosive run rate, limiting the ceiling on any given drive.

Both pass rushes rank in the lower half of the league (Tampa Bay 25th, Dallas 14th), so the protection gap on the offensive side is the more telling trait. Tampa Bay's turnover generation (48th pctl) and middle-of-the-league third down conversion (47th pctl) are the areas where the defense can create opportunity, but the offense will need to overcome significant protection issues against a Dallas unit that has been consistent in finishing drives.

Check back the day before the game for the full preview and picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Key Insights

  • Tampa Bay's offensive line protection (0th pctl sack rate allowed) and whether it can give the offense time to generate any kind of rhythm
  • Dallas's redzone conversion rate (94th pctl) against a Buccaneers defense that generates turnovers at only the 48th percentile
  • Third down conversion: Dallas converts at the 88th percentile, Tampa Bay at the 47th, a 41-point gap in one of the game's most critical situational categories

Key Players

Passing YardsTB
Baker Mayfield
615YDS
61/96, 2 TD, 2 INTQB
Rushing YardsTB
Bucky Irving
241YDS
56 CAR, 1 TDRB
Receiving YardsTB
Cade Otton
157YDS
15 RECTE
SacksTB
David Walker
2SACKS
LB
TacklesTB
Josiah Trotter
34TOT
LB
Passing YardsDAL
Dak Prescott
1,065YDS
105/150, 8 TD, 1 INTQB
Rushing YardsDAL
Javonte Williams
231YDS
62 CAR, 5 TDRB
Receiving YardsDAL
CeeDee Lamb
498YDS
37 REC, 4 TDWR
SacksDAL
Quinnen Williams
1SACKS
DT
TacklesDAL
Caleb Downs
29TOT
S

Recent Form

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
L19-0Jacksonville Jaguars
L33-27Cincinnati Bengals
L23-19Cleveland Browns
L23-16Minnesota Vikings
L17-14Green Bay Packers
Dallas Cowboys
L27-24New Orleans Saints
L28-20New York Giants
W37-20Washington Commanders
L34-31Baltimore Ravens
W34-30Houston Texans

Early look at Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys. Full preview and picks land the day before the game.

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