The Call
Win probability lands with picks the day before kickoff; live market pricing follows once books post prices.
Picks drop the day before kickoff
The model runs after final injury reports. Until then the story below is the substance, and it updates daily.
The Wire
DEN @ LAC · odds in decimalLoading events...
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Game Preview
Denver's pass protection ranks at the 84th percentile in sack rate allowed, while Los Angeles sits at the 16th percentile, a 68-point gap that is the largest single-trait mismatch in this game. The Chargers carry an 81st percentile pass rush, meaning their ability to generate pressure runs directly into one of the stronger offensive lines in the league. Denver converts third downs at the 67th percentile and scores in the redzone at the 69th.
Los Angeles generates turnovers at the 83rd percentile against Denver's 53rd, and the Chargers play at a faster tempo (52nd vs. 23rd pctl). Despite their pass rush and ball-hawking numbers, the Chargers rank only 9th in points per drive, while Denver sits at 28th, making this a low-scoring profile on both sides where the pressure-versus-protection matchup will likely define the game's structure.
Check back the day before the game for the full preview and picks.
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Key Insights
- Los Angeles's pass rush (81st pctl) against Denver's pass protection (84th pctl sack rate allowed), the Chargers have the pressure, the Broncos have one of the sturdier lines to absorb it
- Denver's third down conversion (67th pctl) against a Chargers defense that generates turnovers at the 83rd percentile
- Los Angeles's scoring efficiency (9th pctl points per drive) against a Denver unit that, despite more points per drive, has not been explosive through the air (30th pctl)
Key Players
Passing YardsDEN
Bo Nix
819YDS
81/135, 5 TD, 3 INTQB
Rushing YardsDEN
J.K. Dobbins
161YDS
46 CARRB
Receiving YardsDEN
Jaylen Waddle
185YDS
16 REC, 1 TDWR
SacksDEN
Zach Allen
3SACKS
DE
TacklesDEN
Alex Singleton
47TOT
LB
Passing YardsLAC
Justin Herbert
816YDS
71/119, 4 TD, 6 INTQB
Rushing YardsLAC
Omarion Hampton
238YDS
59 CAR, 3 TDRB
Receiving YardsLAC
Tre' Harris
209YDS
13 RECWR
SacksLAC
Khalil Mack
3SACKS
LB
TacklesLAC
Daiyan Henley
26TOT
LB
Recent Form
Denver Broncos
W34-6Minnesota Vikings
L31-10Kansas City Chiefs
W20-13Jacksonville Jaguars
W30-26Los Angeles Rams
L24-14San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Chargers
L20-18Los Angeles Rams
L26-14Arizona Cardinals
L26-14Las Vegas Raiders
L24-16Buffalo Bills
L30-23Seattle Seahawks
Early look at Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers. Full preview and picks land the day before the game.
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