The Call
Win probability lands with picks the day before kickoff; live market pricing follows once books post prices.
Picks drop the day before kickoff
The model runs after final injury reports. Until then the story below is the substance, and it updates daily.
The Wire
DET @ MIA · odds in decimalLoading events...
Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins Game Preview
Detroit operates at a 91st-percentile pace and scores at a 92nd-percentile rate per drive, backing a run game that produces explosive plays at a 94th-percentile clip. Miami's early-down offense ranks at the 3rd percentile, one of the league's worst at the foundation of drive construction, making it difficult for the Dolphins to build any offensive rhythm.
The pressure situation compounds Miami's challenges: the Dolphins' offensive line allows sacks at a 3rd-percentile rate while Detroit's pass rush generates pressure at a 77th-percentile rate, a 74-point gap that is the widest positional mismatch in this game. Miami's third-down conversion rate (77th percentile) is a relative strength, but the Dolphins must survive early-down struggles just to reach those situations.
Check back the day before the game for the full preview and picks.
Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins Key Insights
- Detroit's pass rush (77th pctl) against Miami's pocket protection (3rd pctl sack rate allowed), one of the sharpest line-of-scrimmage mismatches on the week
- Detroit's explosive run game (94th pctl) against Miami's run defense, as the Lions look to establish their primary offensive identity early
- Whether Miami's third-down efficiency (77th pctl) can sustain drives despite the severe early-down limitations (3rd pctl) that define the Dolphins' offensive profile
Key Players
Passing YardsDET
Jared Goff
1,964YDS
168/248, 15 TD, 1 INTQB
Rushing YardsDET
Jahmyr Gibbs
773YDS
157 CAR, 8 TDRB
Receiving YardsDET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
571YDS
53 REC, 5 TDWR
SacksDET
DJ Wonnum
5SACKS
LB
TacklesDET
Jack Campbell
57TOT
LB
Passing YardsMIA
Malik Willis
1,268YDS
108/183, 6 TD, 5 INTQB
Rushing YardsMIA
Ollie Gordon II
408YDS
91 CAR, 4 TDRB
Receiving YardsMIA
Malik Washington
329YDS
31 REC, 1 TDWR
SacksMIA
Chop Robinson
4SACKS
LB
TacklesMIA
Jacob Rodriguez
69TOT
LB
Recent Form
Detroit Lions
W31-24New York Jets
L32-26Carolina Panthers
W45-21Arizona Cardinals
W20-17Green Bay Packers
W19-15Minnesota Vikings
Miami Dolphins
L24-10Kansas City Chiefs
L15-10Minnesota Vikings
L31-24Cincinnati Bengals
W28-25New York Jets
L24-19New England Patriots
Early look at Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins. Full preview and picks land the day before the game.
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