• Atlanta can win with pressure. The Falcons rank elite in Sack Rate Generated (9.1%, 94th percentile), and Arizona is vulnerable up front with key linemen banged up.

• Arizona’s tempo creates more plays. The Cardinals sit high in Plays Per Minute (110.0%, 89th percentile), which can raise total snaps for both teams.

• The run matchup favors Atlanta. Arizona is near the bottom in Explosive Run Allowed (5.8%, 6th percentile), and Atlanta is above average at creating chunk runs.

• Atlanta’s passing game has a big “if.” Drake London (knee) and Kyle Pitts (knee) are questionable, so Atlanta’s ceiling through the air depends on who suits up.

• Arizona’s explosive passing has been limited. The Cardinals’ Explosive Pass Rate is 6.1% (28th percentile), and that gets tougher if protection breaks down.

• Secondary health matters on both sides. Atlanta is without CB Mike Hughes, and Arizona is missing S Jalen Thompson with more DBs questionable. That can swing a few key third downs.

• Falcons -3 (-103): This number lines up with the trench edge. Atlanta’s sack production (9.1%, 94th percentile) meets an Arizona line missing its starting LT.

• Over 48.0 (-119): Arizona’s pace (110.0% plays per minute) gives you more chances. More plays usually means more scoring opportunities, but you pay extra juice here.

• Falcons moneyline (-159): If you want less variance than the spread, the price says Atlanta wins more often than not. Still, it’s chalk, so you need them to avoid a weird turnover game.

• Falcons team total over 25.0 (-120): Atlanta’s run-game matchup is strong, and tempo can help them get to the mid-20s even without perfect efficiency.

• Bijan Robinson over 89.5 rushing (-106): Arizona struggles to prevent explosive runs (5.8%, 6th percentile). One or two long carries can do a lot of work.

• Cousins under 224.5 passing (-108): This is a game-script play. If Atlanta leads, the run matchup can drain passing volume. It also protects you if London or Pitts is limited.

This game sets up as a stress test for Arizona’s offensive line. Atlanta’s pass rush has real teeth, and the Cardinals are missing key blockers. If Arizona can’t keep the pocket clean, it’s hard to sustain drives.

On the other side, Atlanta has a clear path with the run. Arizona gives up explosive runs at one of the worst rates in the league. That points to a game where the Falcons can stay ahead of the chains and control pace when they want to.

The total is tricky because it depends on who shows up emotionally. Arizona’s fast tempo can push the snap count up, which helps Overs. But sacks and stalled drives can kill scoring too, especially if the Cardinals’ offense sputters.

If you bet it, respect the injury news. Drake London and Kyle Pitts being questionable is a big swing for props and for Atlanta’s passing ceiling. Also watch Arizona’s center situation. When the line is shaky, outcomes get noisy fast, and that variance matters.