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SF
ATL
Game Preview
The Falcons visit the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on Oct. 20 at 8:20 p.m. ET. San Francisco needs answers after injuries hit key spots. Atlanta arrives with confidence and speed on both sides of the ball.
The 49ers are shorthanded on defense. Fred Warner is out and Nick Bosa is on injured reserve. Several defensive backs are Questionable. On offense, Brandon Aiyuk is out and both Brock Purdy and Mac Jones are listed as Questionable at quarterback. That creates real variance in how San Francisco moves the ball.
Atlanta has its own health flags. Left tackle Jake Matthews is Questionable. So are top pass targets Drake London and Kyle Pitts. If they play, Michael Penix Jr. gets a deeper route tree. If they sit or are limited, expect more Bijan Robinson touches and short game.
Explosive plays could decide it. An explosive play is a gain of 15+ yards passing or 10+ yards rushing. Atlanta rates well at creating explosive passes, while San Francisco’s defense has allowed a higher rate of those shots. The flip side: the 49ers’ run game has not produced many chunk gains this year.
Current Season Form
SF
AwayATL
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | @ TB | L 19-30 | L 3.5 | o46.5 |
| 2025-10-02 | @ LAR | W 26-23 | L 8.5 | o43.5 |
| 2025-09-28 | vs JAX | L 21-26 | L 3.5 | o45.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ARI | W 16-15 | W +1.5 | u44.5 |
| 2025-09-14 | @ NO | W 26-21 | W +-3.0 | o40.5 |
| 2025-09-07 | @ SEA | W 17-13 | W +-2.5 | u43.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | @ ARI | L 24-47 | L 4.5 | o42.5 |
| 2024-12-30 | vs DET | L 34-40 | L -4.0 | o50.5 |
| 2024-12-22 | @ MIA | L 17-29 | L -2.0 | o44.0 |
| 2024-12-12 | vs LAR | L 6-12 | L 3.0 | u48.5 |
Key Insights
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ATL can stress SF downfield. Falcons’ explosive pass rate is 9.5% (84th percentile), while SF allows explosive passes at 8.6% (16th).
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ATL rush can get home. Falcons generate sacks at 9.1% (95th), and convert pressure to sacks at 9.1% (95th), testing a 49ers QB room that is Questionable.
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SF ground game lacks bursts. 49ers’ explosive run rate is just 1.2% (6th), so long runs have been rare.
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Money downs are a clash. SF converts third downs 45.3% (91st), but ATL stops third downs 67.9% (91st).
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Short yardage favors ATL’s defense. Falcons’ third-and-short stuff rate is 60.0% (100th), which can stall SF drives near the sticks.
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Small-sample caution. Big-play TD rate numbers come from 22 plays for each side, so finishing long plays is volatile.
Betting Insights
Anchor spread: 49ers -3.0 (-103). Near even price. SF’s third-down offense 45.3% meets ATL’s strong stops, so expect swings around this key number.
Anchor total: 47.0 (Under -115 / Over -119). ATL limits explosives allowed through the air 3.6% (94th) and SF’s explosive run rate is 1.2%, which leans Under, but the price is modest juice.
Michael Penix Jr. Over 228.5 pass yds (-119). SF’s sack rate generated is only 2.5% (3rd), improving Penix’s time to throw.
Drake London Over 76.5 rec yds (-120). Fits ATL’s 9.5% explosive pass rate vs SF’s 8.6% explosive passes allowed. Action is volatile until London is confirmed in.
Bijan Robinson Over 76.5 rush yds (-120). With Warner out and SF allowing 4.5% explosive runs, Bijan volume can stack yards.
Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-204). Heavy juice (price you pay), but SF’s long-drive efficiency is 100% and ATL allows TDs on 66.7% of red-zone trips.
Final Summary
This matchup hinges on health. San Francisco’s defensive core is thin without Warner and Bosa. The pass rush numbers reflect it, which can boost Atlanta’s passing rhythm if London and Pitts are active.
Atlanta’s defense brings heat and stops short yardage, but the Falcons’ offense still needs to finish drives. Field goals over touchdowns have been a theme at times, so red-zone execution matters.
Our anchors: 49ers -3.0 (-103) and Total 47.0 with a slight lean to the Under -115 due to Atlanta’s explosive-play prevention and SF’s lack of rushing bursts. For props, Penix Over 228.5 (-119) and Bijan rushing Over 76.5 (-120) fit the matchup, while London Over 76.5 (-120) is attractive if he’s in. Manage juice and scale bets to injury news.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 100 | #30 | 128 | #17 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 20 | #27 | 21.3 | #15 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 10 | #28 | 15 | #16 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 4 | #31 | 10 | #23 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 6 | #15 | 4 | #12 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #14 | 1 | #28 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 40 | #23 | 36 | #25 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #31 | 0 | #31 | 🏈 |
| Kick Extra Points | 10 | #25 | 12 | #20 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 1138 | #23 | 1286 | #14 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 228 | #12 | 214 | #15 | |
| Passer Rating | 85.3 | #26 | 105 | #7 | |
| Passing Attempts | 164 | #25 | 193 | #19 | |
| Completions | 103 | #29 | 131 | #13 | |
| Completion Percentage | 62.8 | #26 | 67.9 | #21 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 56 | #23 | 61 | #14 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 53.3 | #22 | 53.0 | #11 | |
| Longest Pass | 69 | #7 | 45 | #26 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #22 | 3 | #4 | |
| Receiving Targets | 161 | #24 | 189 | #14 | |
| Receptions | 103 | #29 | 131 | #20 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 633 | #16 | 516 | #5 | |
| YAC Average | 6.1 | #4 | 3.9 | #3 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 756 | #10 | 644 | #16 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 151 | #1 | 107 | #19 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 159 | #15 | 158 | #21 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4.8 | #8 | 4.1 | #20 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 40 | #11 | 41 | #18 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 4 | #10 | 3 | #16 | |
| Long Rushing | 81 | #1 | 48 | #15 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 4 | #10 | 3 | #16 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #10 | 1 | #15 | |
Game Preview of Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers. Week 7 of 2025 NFL Season
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