• Buffalo’s offense creates chunk plays: 9.7% explosive pass rate (97th percentile) and 5.2% explosive run rate (91st percentile).

• New England’s defense can end drives: 63.5% third down stop rate (94th percentile).

• Buffalo’s defense hunts takeaways: 2.3% turnover generation rate (91st percentile).

• Patriots protection is a red flag: 8.4% sack rate allowed (19th percentile), and the LT spot is banged up.

• Bills protection is also a concern: 7.6% sack rate allowed (22nd percentile), with Spencer Brown questionable.

• New England’s goal-line stuff rate is poor at 33.3% (5th percentile), but that comes on a tiny sample (12 snaps), so treat it carefully.

• Bills -2.5 (-108) is the clean spread look if you trust Buffalo’s explosive profile (97th percentile explosive pass) to win a few high-value snaps.

• Total 49.0 is priced Over -120 and Under +100. If you expect sacks and stalled drives (both teams bottom-tier in sack rate allowed percentiles), the plus-money under is the “messy game” angle.

• The market says “coin-flip-ish” game: Bills -130 vs Patriots -105 on the moneyline. That fits a matchup where one turnover can swing everything.

• Josh Allen over 36.5 rush yards (-119) matches the Bills’ explosive run identity (91st percentile). This also plays into red-zone and third-down scramble chances.

• Drake Maye under 231.5 pass yards (-120) lines up with New England’s protection concern (19th percentile sack rate allowed) and Buffalo’s takeaway rate (91st percentile).

• Khalil Shakir over 42.5 rec yards (-118) is a simple way to play Buffalo’s big-play passing environment (97th percentile explosive pass rate), without needing one deep bomb.

This matchup looks like a classic AFC East grinder with bursts of chaos. New England can absolutely make this game uncomfortable with its third-down defense and steady pace. The Patriots’ third down stop rate (94th percentile) is real, and it can keep the score tight.

But Buffalo has the more explosive ways to score. The Bills sit in the 97th percentile in explosive passing, and they also run the ball with chunk-play upside. That matters in a game where long drives might be hard to string together.

The biggest hinge is protection. Both teams show weakness in sack rate allowed, and both have key linemen listed questionable. If one quarterback starts taking hits early, it can snowball into punts, turnovers, and short fields.

From a betting lens, the spread and total sit in “close game, points available” territory. If you bet it, respect the variance. Injuries, kicker reliability (Buffalo’s kicker situation), and one busted coverage can wreck any clean script.