• The 49ers convert third downs at a 52.4% clip, tops in the league. That helps sustain drives and tire out defenses.
• Chicago’s defense leads the league in turnover rate (3.5%), giving them a puncher’s chance against San Francisco’s high-powered attack.
• San Francisco allows explosive passes on just 5.6% of plays (86th percentile), which could limit deep shots from Caleb Williams.
• The Bears run a fast-paced offense (94th percentile in plays per minute) and are efficient on long drives (88.6%).
• The 49ers struggle to generate sacks (3.0% sack rate, 3rd percentile), which may give Caleb Williams time to create.
• Injuries in both secondaries (notably CB Renardo Green for SF and multiple Bears DBs) could tilt the passing game either way.

• The 49ers are favored by 3.5 points (-102), reflecting their home dominance and recent scoring surge.
• The total is set at 52.5, with the Over priced at -118. Both teams have scored 26+ in recent wins.
• Christian McCaffrey Over 38.5 receiving yards is priced at -116. He’s chasing 1,000 receiving yards and faces a defense weak against explosive plays.
• Brock Purdy Over 260.5 passing yards is -120. He’s on a heater with 8 TDs in two games and a clean pocket (just 3.4% sack rate allowed).
• Caleb Williams Over 18.5 rushing yards (-116) could cash if SF’s weak pass rush (3.0% pressure-to-sack) gives him room to scramble.
• Jauan Jennings Over 59.5 receiving yards (-120) is worth watching, especially if Kittle is ruled out.

But don’t count out Chicago. Their defense leads the NFL in takeaways, and Caleb Williams is showing growth in both passing and rushing. If their injury-riddled secondary holds up, they have the tools to keep it close.

With a spread of just 3.5 points and a total in the low 50s, oddsmakers expect a shootout. Given both teams’ recent scoring trends and big-play potential, the Over and player props could be attractive, just watch injury reports closely.

Expect fireworks in the Bay Area as two NFC contenders battle under the lights.