• Denver’s pass rush is elite: 12.0% sack rate generated and 12.0% pressure-to-sack conversion (both top percentile). That stresses a Houston line with a 6.0% sack rate allowed.

• Houston’s defense wins situational downs: 65.1% third-down stop rate (91st percentile) and strong turnover generation (2.6%).

• Red zone swing: Denver’s offense scores TDs on 66.7% of red-zone trips, while Houston’s defense allows TDs on 70.6% of red-zone stands (weakness).

• Run-explosive tilt favors Denver: Broncos post a 5.9% explosive run rate (81st percentile) vs Houston’s offense at 2.7% (19th).

• Big-play passing: Houston’s offense hits explosive passes at 7.8% (66th percentile), but Denver limits explosive passes allowed to 6.3% (81st percentile on defense).

• Availability watch: Surtain II Doubtful for Denver; Houston lists Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, and Dalton Schultz as Questionable. Status will influence how often each side tests the outside.

• Anchor spread: Texans -3 (+104). If you expect a one-score game with late variance, the plus-money -3 offers a better payout than -3.5 (+122) with a push risk trade-off.

• Anchor total: 40.0 (Under -118). Both defenses rank strong in key traits and third-down stops; red-zone efficiency vs red-zone leaks could still leave us around 40.

• First half Under 19.5 (-109): Slow starts are live with two pass rushes that win early downs and force punts.

• Field goals Over 3.5 (-101): Stalling drives plus solid kicker accuracy on both teams support a FG-heavy script.

• C.J. Stroud Under 228.5 passing (-120): Denver’s rush-to-sack and third-down stop profile caps volume.

• Bo Nix Over 20.5 rushing (-118): Designed keepers and scrambles are a pressure release against Houston’s front.

• J.K. Dobbins Over 56.5 rushing (-120): Denver’s explosive run profile suggests chunk gains if game state stays neutral.

• Courtland Sutton Over 55.5 receiving (-119): Houston’s weakness is explosive passes allowed (8.6%) and depth concerns at safety.

Note juice and volatility: Several Texans pass-catcher markets carry status risk (Questionable). Confirm actives close to kick.

This matchup is about pass rush and situational football. Denver rushes the passer at a top-tier level, turns pressure into sacks, and closes possessions in the red zone. Houston’s defense gets off the field on third down and hunts turnovers. Those traits push the total toward the low 40s.

On offense, Denver can set a floor with the run game and selective shots outside. If Houston’s secondary is short-handed, Courtland Sutton can win isolated routes. For Houston, protection for C.J. Stroud is the key. If the pocket holds, the Texans can find explosives, but that is a big ask against this front.

Market-wise, the board reflects a tight, low-scoring tilt. The anchor spread sits at Texans -3 (+104) and the total clusters around 40. Props that align with a grinding pace and pressure effects—QB rushing for Nix, unders for high passing yard lines, and field goals over—fit the profile.

As always, manage risk. Prices carry juice and the statuses of key Texans pass-catchers are live. Confirm inactives and shop numbers before placing bets.