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CHI
GB
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Packers at Bears in the Wild Card round brings the rivalry heat right away. Soldier Field gets a playoff game, and the recent meetings have been pure stress. Late kicks, late picks, and at least one overtime finish.
The clean matchup headline is simple: Green Bay can create chunk passes, and Chicago can create turnovers. The Packers sit at a 10.0% explosive pass rate, best in the league by percentile. The Bears, on the other hand, allow explosive passes at an 8.5% rate, which ranks near the bottom.
Chicago’s offense also plays fast. The Bears sit at 111.0% plays per minute (97th percentile), and they convert third downs at 46.9% (88th percentile). That pace can snowball into more total plays, more fourth-down tries, and more pressure on a defense that has taken on injuries.
The swing factors look like protection and takeaways. If Green Bay protects well, the big plays are there. If Chicago flips the game with a pick or a short field, the Bears can control script with tempo and downhill runs.
Current Season Form
CHI
AwayGB
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | L 16-19 | W +3.5 | u51.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | L 38-42 | L 3.5 | o51.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | W 22-16 | W +1.5 | u45.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | W 31-3 | W +7.5 | u38.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | L 21-28 | L 6.5 | o44.5 |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | W 24-15 | W +7.0 | u43.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | W 31-28 | W +3.0 | o46.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | W 19-17 | L 3.0 | u47.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | W 24-20 | W +4.5 | u45.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | @ CIN | W 47-42 | W +-3.0 | o51.5 |
Key Insights
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Green Bay’s passing game lives on explosives: GB has a 10.0% explosive pass rate (100th percentile) and a 7.3% deep explosive pass rate (95th percentile).
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Chicago’s defense gives up big gains: CHI allows explosive passes at 8.5% (16th percentile) and explosive runs at 5.7% (6th percentile).
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Chicago plays fast and stays aggressive: CHI sits at 111.0% plays per minute (97th percentile) and shows high fourth-down aggression (70.0%, 92nd percentile).
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Third down could decide drives: GB converts third downs at 50.3% (97th percentile), including 39.5% on third-and-long (100th percentile).
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Turnovers are Chicago’s superpower: CHI’s 3.2% turnover generation rate (100th percentile) is the type of edge that can erase yardage issues.
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Injuries shape the pressure points: Bears DB injuries (including C.J. Gardner-Johnson out) matter versus GB’s deep passing, while GB’s Zach Tom (Questionable) matters for pass pro and run efficiency.
Betting Insights
Market sees a tight game. Packers moneyline is -139 and Bears are -105, so it is priced like a one-score fight.
If you like Green Bay, the key number is 3. Packers -3.0 is +120, while Bears +3.0 is -133. That +120 is attractive, but it comes with real volatility.
Total is modest at 45.0. Over -116 and Under -122 says “mid-40s” scoring, with pricing slightly shaded to the under.
Love yardage is lined at 225.5 (-119 over). The matchup supports volume and chunk throws, but turnovers are the risk if Chicago’s takeaway trend holds.
Swift’s rushing line is 57.5 (-118 over). If this stays tight and Chicago keeps tempo, Swift’s workload can stack carries.
Reed anytime TD (+163) is a boom option. It fits Green Bay’s explosive-pass profile, but remember TD props are high variance.
Final Summary
This game sets up like a classic rivalry playoff grinder with a few splash plays. Chicago wants tempo, fourth-down pressure, and takeaways. Green Bay wants clean pockets and shots downfield.
If the Bears get turnovers, they can win without “perfect” defense. Their turnover generation rate sits at the top of the league by percentile, and that can flip a playoff game fast. The risk is that their secondary is banged up, and Green Bay’s passing profile is built to punish coverage busts.
From a betting view, the numbers tell you it is close. The spread cluster around 3 points and the total in the mid-40s fit the recent series vibe. Just keep your stake size in check. Short spreads, turnover-heavy teams, and rivalry games can turn on one weird bounce.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 263 | #15 | 292 | #6 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 23.9 | #13 | 26.5 | #26 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 30 | #12 | 35 | #29 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 16 | #21 | 22 | #30 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 14 | #5 | 11 | #21 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #32 | 2 | #27 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 79 | #16 | 76 | #22 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 2 | #9 | 3 | #4 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 25 | #15 | 31 | #6 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 2447 | #14 | 2472 | #14 | 🏈 |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 222 | #14 | 225 | #12 | |
| Passer Rating | 103 | #6 | 92.9 | #14 | |
| Passing Attempts | 334 | #25 | 340 | #12 | |
| Completions | 227 | #20 | 233 | #17 | |
| Completion Percentage | 68 | #10 | 68.5 | #28 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 125 | #13 | 119 | #15 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 55.3 | #19 | 52.9 | #7 | |
| Longest Pass | 59 | #19 | 64 | #14 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #27 | 3 | #17 | |
| Receiving Targets | 313 | #27 | 328 | #21 | |
| Receptions | 227 | #20 | 233 | #16 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 1256 | #15 | 1117 | #12 | |
| YAC Average | 5.5 | #8 | 4.8 | #10 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 1281 | #16 | 1519 | #28 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 116 | #15 | 138 | #5 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 320 | #9 | 293 | #17 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4 | #23 | 5.2 | #3 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 81 | #11 | 82 | #24 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 1 | #31 | 10 | #6 | |
| Long Rushing | 25 | #31 | 64 | #11 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 1 | #31 | 10 | #6 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #8 | 4 | #4 | |
Game Preview of Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Cubs. Wildcard Weekend of 2026 NFL Season
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