• Green Bay’s passing game lives on explosives: GB has a 10.0% explosive pass rate (100th percentile) and a 7.3% deep explosive pass rate (95th percentile).

• Chicago’s defense gives up big gains: CHI allows explosive passes at 8.5% (16th percentile) and explosive runs at 5.7% (6th percentile).

• Chicago plays fast and stays aggressive: CHI sits at 111.0% plays per minute (97th percentile) and shows high fourth-down aggression (70.0%, 92nd percentile).

• Third down could decide drives: GB converts third downs at 50.3% (97th percentile), including 39.5% on third-and-long (100th percentile).

• Turnovers are Chicago’s superpower: CHI’s 3.2% turnover generation rate (100th percentile) is the type of edge that can erase yardage issues.

• Injuries shape the pressure points: Bears DB injuries (including C.J. Gardner-Johnson out) matter versus GB’s deep passing, while GB’s Zach Tom (Questionable) matters for pass pro and run efficiency.

• Market sees a tight game. Packers moneyline is -139 and Bears are -105, so it is priced like a one-score fight.

• If you like Green Bay, the key number is 3. Packers -3.0 is +120, while Bears +3.0 is -133. That +120 is attractive, but it comes with real volatility.

• Total is modest at 45.0. Over -116 and Under -122 says “mid-40s” scoring, with pricing slightly shaded to the under.

• Love yardage is lined at 225.5 (-119 over). The matchup supports volume and chunk throws, but turnovers are the risk if Chicago’s takeaway trend holds.

• Swift’s rushing line is 57.5 (-118 over). If this stays tight and Chicago keeps tempo, Swift’s workload can stack carries.

• Reed anytime TD (+163) is a boom option. It fits Green Bay’s explosive-pass profile, but remember TD props are high variance.

This game sets up like a classic rivalry playoff grinder with a few splash plays. Chicago wants tempo, fourth-down pressure, and takeaways. Green Bay wants clean pockets and shots downfield.

If the Bears get turnovers, they can win without “perfect” defense. Their turnover generation rate sits at the top of the league by percentile, and that can flip a playoff game fast. The risk is that their secondary is banged up, and Green Bay’s passing profile is built to punish coverage busts.

From a betting view, the numbers tell you it is close. The spread cluster around 3 points and the total in the mid-40s fit the recent series vibe. Just keep your stake size in check. Short spreads, turnover-heavy teams, and rivalry games can turn on one weird bounce.