• Denver’s defense can wreck a game with pressure. It owns a 10.2% sack rate generated and a 10.2% pressure-to-sack conversion, both best-in-class marks.

• Green Bay usually protects its QB well. The Packers allow sacks on just 4.0% of dropbacks, which sets up a real clash up front.

• The Broncos are built to prevent back-breaking runs. They allow explosive runs at 1.5%, one of the best rates in the league.

• Green Bay’s passing offense has real chunk-play ability. The Packers sit at 9.5% explosive pass rate and 6.5% deep explosive pass rate, both in the 91st percentile.

• Denver’s defense is also stingy against explosives through the air, allowing explosive passes at 4.7% (95th percentile).

• Red zone reps may end in kicks. Denver allows TDs on just 37.8% of red zone trips (small sample of 37), and Green Bay’s field goal accuracy sits at 76.0%.

• Packers -3 (+104) is a classic “take the better price, accept the worse line” option. You gain plus money, but you lose the key hook compared to -2.5.

• If you want the cleaner path, Packers -2.5 (-118) avoids the push on a 3-point win, but you pay extra juice (a higher price).

• The market also leans Green Bay straight up: Packers ML -123 vs Broncos ML +114.

• The total is low for a reason. Under 43 (-120) lines up with two defenses that win on third down (GB converts 50.0%, DEN stops 67.0%).

• Bo Nix UNDER 213.5 passing (-119) fits Denver’s lower explosive pass profile (5.8% explosive pass rate) against a Green Bay defense that limits explosive passes allowed (5.2%).

• Keep an eye on the Packers’ backfield. With Jacobs Questionable, Emanuel Wilson anytime TD (-133) is a way to bet the “next man up” scoring role if Jacobs’ workload dips.

This game comes down to two questions. First: can Green Bay stay efficient on third down against the league’s toughest third-down defense? Second: can Denver’s pass rush turn a few pressures into drive-ending sacks?

Green Bay’s offense has the sharper explosive pass profile, but Denver’s defense is built to take those plays away. That tug-of-war often pushes games toward longer drives, field goals, and fewer “cheap” touchdowns.

From a betting view, the spread menu tells you what the market thinks. Green Bay is favored even on the road, and you can choose between -3 at plus money or -2.5 with more juice. The total at 43 also signals respect for both defenses.

The injury report is the final filter. If Jacobs and Zach Tom look closer to full go, Green Bay’s offense has more answers. If either one is limited, Denver’s front can tilt the whole game plan fast.