• Houston’s third-down defense is elite, stopping opponents 65.5% of the time, second-best in the league.
• Both teams have 41 sacks, showing strong pass rushes on both sides.
• Chargers excel on long drives, finishing them at a 91.3% rate, among the top in the NFL.
• Texans struggle in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 44.9% of red zone trips.
• Chargers’ offensive line is banged up, and Houston could exploit that with pressure.
• Herbert’s mobility adds a layer, particularly against a Texans defense missing depth in the secondary and linebacker groups.

• The game total is set low at 40.0 points, with the Under priced at -128, reflecting both teams’ defensive strength.
• Justin Herbert’s rushing prop is 23.5 yards (Over -123), and he’s coming off a 42-yard rushing game.
• Herbert’s passing line is just 210.5 yards (Over -119), despite throwing for 300 yards last week.
• Dalton Schultz’s receiving prop is 43.5 yards (Over -122); short passes may be key with Texans’ line issues.
• Omarion Hampton is +134 to score anytime, he’s coming off an 85-yard, 1-TD game and could benefit if Kimani Vidal sits.
• Nico Collins is +162 to score anytime; he remains Houston’s top red-zone target.

That said, Justin Herbert’s dual-threat ability could be the difference. He’s efficient through the air and dangerous on scrambles, and Houston has had issues containing that style. Herbert’s rushing and passing props offer upside, but the Texans’ elite defense means there’s still risk.

Houston’s offensive line injuries are concerning. With two left tackles either out or questionable, Stroud may need to get the ball out quickly. That could lead to a bigger role for tight end Dalton Schultz in the passing game.

In a tight AFC battle, the Chargers are slight home favorites at -119 on the moneyline. But with both teams fighting for playoff position, expect full effort on both sides, and potentially a lower-scoring, grind-it-out game.