• Houston’s defense wins late downs. Its 65.0% third-down stop rate is near the top of the league by percentile.

• Pittsburgh’s pace trends slow. The Steelers’ plays per minute (95%) sits in the bottom tier, which can shorten games.

• The Steelers often trade touchdowns for field goals. Their 86.7% red zone FG vs TD rate is No. 1 by percentile.

• Houston creates extra chances. The Texans’ turnover generation rate (2.3%) is top-tier by percentile.

• Big plays may be harder to find than the names suggest. Both teams rate low in deep explosive passes (PIT 2.9%, HOU 3.5%).

• Watch Houston’s injury list in the trenches and secondary. Two LTs and CB Kamari Lassiter are questionable, and those spots can swing protection and coverage.

• Texans -3.0 (-103) is the clean key number. If you like Houston, -3 is better than laying the hook at -3.5.

• Steelers +3.0 (-110) fits the “tight game” script. With a low total, every point matters more.

• Under 39.0 (-143) is pricey juice, but it matches the profiles: slower Steelers pace and low deep-shot explosiveness on both sides.

• If you want a cheaper way to play the same idea, look at Steelers team total Under 17.0 (-118) against Houston’s third-down defense.

• Rodgers Under 204.5 passing yards (-118) lines up with a game where Pittsburgh settles for field goals and sees shorter drives.

• Total field goals Over 3.5 (-164) is also juiced, but Pittsburgh’s red-zone tendency (86.7% FG vs TD) supports more kicking than finishing.

This game sets up like a classic playoff stress test. Houston has the cleaner overall profile, and its defense has the “get off the field” trait you want in January. That 65.0% third-down stop rate is a big deal if the Steelers try to play keep-away.

Pittsburgh’s path is narrower, but it is clear. Slow the game down, protect Rodgers enough, and take points when they show up. The Steelers’ red-zone numbers suggest they will not force touchdowns when the field goal is there.

For bettors, the market is already leaning “lower scoring and close.” That shows up in the 39-point total and the Texans -3 spread. Just remember the juice. Paying -143 on an under means you need to be right a lot.

In the end, the hinge points are simple: third downs, red-zone finishes, and whether the questionable linemen and defensive backs can go. If those injuries break the wrong way, the game script can flip fast, even with a low total.