• Seattle’s passing offense creates chunk gains more than anyone: 10.5% Explosive Pass Rate (100th percentile).

• The Seahawks protect the quarterback extremely well: 2.9% Sack Rate Allowed (97th percentile), so Indy may not get cheap stops.

• The Colts can still hit big throws: 7.9% Explosive Pass Rate (72nd percentile) and 5.1% Deep Pass Expl (75th percentile).

• Indy’s defense can get stuck on the field. Their Third Down Stop Rate is 52.6% (19th percentile), and Seattle is strong on long drives (94.6%, 100th percentile).

• DeForest Buckner (IR) matters in the run fit and at the goal line. That can show up if Seattle leans run to protect a lead.

• Sauce Gardner (questionable) is a big swing piece. If he sits, Seattle’s explosive passing profile becomes even more dangerous.

• Seahawks -11.5 (-149) is expensive juice. You are paying for the “Seattle controls the game” script, but big spreads always carry late backdoor risk.

• Colts +11.5 (+114) pays you to bet on a closer game. That angle needs Indy to hit a few explosive plays (7.9% explosive pass rate) and avoid turnovers.

• Total 43.0 (Over -112, Under -120) sits in the middle. If Indy’s offense stalls due to injuries, the Under has a clean path.

• Seahawks team total Over 28.5 (-116) lines up with the traits: Seattle’s explosive pass rate is No. 1 (10.5%) and their long drives finish (94.6%).

• Colts team total Under 13.5 (-128) is juiced, but it matches the injury uncertainty and the way this game is priced on the moneyline (SEA -834).

• Sam Darnold Over 235.5 pass yards (-119) pairs with Seattle’s pass explosiveness (10.5%) and drive success (94.6%).

Seattle has the cleaner setup. The Seahawks throw explosive passes at the highest rate in the league, and they protect the QB at an elite level. That is a tough combo to face on the road.

Indianapolis has paths to compete, but they need help from game script. They likely need to lean on Jonathan Taylor, hit a few chunk plays, and take some fourth-down shots to steal extra possessions.

Injuries matter a lot here. Buckner being out can show up in the run defense. Gardner and Braden Smith being questionable can swing both sides of the ball. That is why this game carries more uncertainty than the spread alone suggests.

If you bet it, match your play to your story. Seattle bets assume steady offense and a two-score win. Colts plus the points assumes a tighter game with a few big Indy moments.