• Both offenses play fast. The Chiefs rank at the very top in plays per minute at 114.0 (100th percentile), and the Cowboys are not far behind at 110.0 (89th percentile). That points to a high snap game on both sides.

• Kansas City leans into shotgun and the pass. They use shotgun on 67.7 percent of snaps (100th percentile), and their explosive pass rate sits at 8.2 percent of attempts (78th percentile). That matches Mahomes’ aggressive style.

• Dallas counters with strong execution on money downs. The Cowboys convert 47.1 percent of their third downs (91st percentile), which helps Prescott keep long drives alive even if the run game is only modestly explosive.

• The Chiefs defense is vulnerable to big plays through the air. They allow explosive passes on 8.2 percent of opponent dropbacks (19th percentile). That weakness is important if Prescott and Lamb are healthy enough to take shots.

• Injuries could tilt the trench battle. Kansas City loses starting guard Trey Smith and has several tackles Questionable, while Dallas has its own cluster of Questionable linemen and a starting left tackle out. Both sides may have to protect their quarterbacks with quick game and scheme rather than pure talent up front.

• Skill talent durability is a major wild card. For Kansas City, multiple wide receivers and tight ends are either Questionable or out, which pushes more work onto Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. For Dallas, Questionable tags on Prescott and Lamb tie directly to explosive pass rate and third down success. Late news here may swing how both offenses look.

• The main spread sits at Chiefs -3.5 (+101) / Cowboys +3.5 (-113). That reflects Kansas City still priced as the better team, but only by a field goal hook on the road. Paying minus money for the home dog at +3.5 brings some extra juice risk.

• The headline total of 52.5 with Over -110 / Under -106 lines up with both teams’ tempo numbers. With each offense inside the top tier for plays per minute, there is a clear path to high volume scoring drives, but bettors should remember that one cold red zone stretch can sink an Over at this height.

• Chiefs team total markets project them in the high twenties. Over 27.5 at -125 and Under 27.5 at -114 show you pay a premium if you expect Mahomes to push this into a true shootout. Given the cluster of Questionable running backs and wideouts, that team total leans on passing volume more than balance.

• Cowboys team totals cluster just under the mid twenties. Over 23.5 at -132 and Under 23.5 at -109 suggest the market respects Dallas offense but also the Chiefs defense. With Prescott and Lamb both listed as Questionable, anyone backing the Over on Cowboys points is taking on extra injury risk at a fairly steep price.

• Passing yardage props expect both quarterbacks to air it out. Mahomes is set around 278.5 yards with both Over and Under in the -120 to -119 range, while Prescott sits near 266.5 yards with similar juice. Indoors, fast tempo, and strong third down numbers support high volume, but any in game limp or pressure spike can push these toward the Under.

• Receiving props highlight key pass catchers. Travis Kelce is lined at 55.5 yards with mid minus money on both sides. CeeDee Lamb is at 80.5 yards in the same price band, and Rashee Rice is 78.5 yards with tight juice. These numbers assume heavy targets. If any of these players are limited by leg issues on a short week, variance jumps quickly.

This Thanksgiving matchup brings far more urgency than the usual holiday game. The Chiefs are trying to hold onto their place among AFC contenders while fixing their road issues. The Cowboys are pushing to secure a playoff spot while proving that their dramatic win over Philadelphia was a turning point, not a one off.

On the field, this looks like a high tempo, high leverage contest. Kansas City wants to spread things out, live in shotgun, and let Mahomes attack with quick passes and explosive shots. Dallas will try to answer with long, efficient drives built around Prescott, Lamb, and Pickens on third down. Both defenses have vulnerable spots, and both are dealing with injuries in coverage and along the line.

From a betting angle, the market is treating this like a close but slightly tilted matchup, with Kansas City a small road favorite and a total in the low fifties. That tells you pricing already bakes in Mahomes’ history of big performances in domes and the Cowboys recent surge on offense. It also means there is not much margin for error if you are laying points or chasing high Overs at heavy juice.

For bettors, the key is to match your positions to your confidence in health and game script. If you believe Dak and Lamb are near full strength and the Cowboys line holds up, Dallas plus the points and passing overs make more sense. If you trust Mahomes in this environment and think the Cowboys injuries catch up, Chiefs side and team total angles are more appealing. Either way, this is a volatile spot, not a guaranteed outcome, and it is worth sizing your bets with Thanksgiving variance firmly in mind.