• The Chargers are a chain-moving offense: 48.5% third-down conversion (91st percentile) and 91.3% long drive efficiency (97th percentile).

• Dallas’ defense has trouble getting off the field: 52.3% third-down stop rate (9th percentile).

• The Chargers’ run game has home-run ability: 5.6% explosive run rate (94th percentile).

• Dallas plays fast: 112.0% plays per minute (98th percentile), which can raise total snaps for both teams.

• Chargers pass defense limits big plays: 5.9% explosive passes allowed (81st percentile), but CB Elijah Molden is questionable, which could change matchups outside.

• Dallas’ secondary has major availability risk: DaRon Bland (Doubtful) and Caelen Carson (Questionable), plus other depth issues, which can stress coverage on longer drives.

• Cowboys -3 (-101) asks Dallas to win by more than a field goal. That is a thin margin if the Chargers keep stacking third-down conversions (48.5%, 91st percentile).

• Total 49.0: Chargers are elite at long drives (91.3%, 97th percentile), but they finish with TDs at a low rate (46.9% red-zone TD rate, 14th percentile). That combo can create points, but also field goals and empty red-zone trips.

• Justin Herbert Over 239.5 passing yards (-120): Dallas allows explosive passes at a higher rate (7.6%, 31st percentile) and is banged up at CB.

• Dak Prescott Under 255.5 passing yards (-119): Chargers allow explosive passes at a low rate (5.9%, 81st percentile). Injury swing: this lean is weaker if Molden (Q) sits.

• Omarion Hampton Over 44.5 rushing yards (-123): Chargers’ explosive run rate (5.6%, 94th percentile) matches up with Dallas’ 7.0% explosive run allowed.

• Keenan Allen Over 38.5 receiving yards (-119): If the Chargers stay on schedule (third downs and long drives), Allen profiles as a steady-volume option in a methodical game script.

This game looks like a clash of styles. The Cowboys want to push pace. They rank in the 98th percentile in plays per minute. The Chargers want to stay on schedule, convert third downs, and string together long possessions.

The matchup edge that keeps popping is third down. The Chargers convert at 48.5%, while Dallas grades poorly at getting stops in those spots. If that holds, Los Angeles can control time of possession and keep Dallas’ offense on the sideline.

Injuries may decide the ceiling. If Dallas is missing key corners, Herbert has a clear path to yards. If the Chargers are missing Elijah Molden, Dallas has a better shot to land downfield plays.

From a betting lens, the cleanest angles are the ones tied to team shape: Chargers drive sustainability, Dallas defensive leaks on money downs, and pace-driven volume. Just respect the late-week inactive risk, especially with multiple high-impact players listed questionable.