• The Chargers have been a third-down team: 49.0% conversion rate (91st percentile), which helps them win time of possession.

• Kansas City pushes tempo: 113.0% plays per minute (100th percentile), so the Chiefs can turn a close game into a high-snap game.

• Chargers drives can stall near the goal line: 46.8% red-zone TD rate (16th percentile). That invites field-goal attempts.

• The Chiefs are built to create explosives through the air: 6.1% deep-pass explosive rate (88th percentile), but the Chargers have also been solid at limiting explosive passes allowed (5.9%, 78th percentile).

• Chargers pass protection is a concern, especially with both starting-level LTs on IR, and a season-long 9.5% sack rate allowed (9th percentile).

• Watch the secondary injuries. McDuffie (KC) and Molden (LAC) carry “questionable” tags, and those decisions can change how aggressive each offense gets.

• Chargers +5.5 (-114): LAC’s 49.0% third-down conversion (91st percentile) supports a “keep it close” script, but Herbert’s status raises risk.

• Chiefs -5.5 (-118): KC’s tempo (113.0% plays per minute, 100th percentile) can stretch leads if the Chargers offense is limited on the short week.

• Under 41.5 (-118): The Chargers’ 46.8% red-zone TD rate (16th percentile) points to more field goals than touchdowns.

• Chiefs team total Under 23.5 (-120): LAC’s defense allows TDs on just 48.8% of red-zone chances (83rd percentile), which can force KC to settle.

• Mahomes Under 236.5 pass yards (-120): LAC’s explosive pass allowed rate (5.9%, 78th percentile) suggests fewer chunk throws, especially if KC plays more ball-control.

• Rashee Rice anytime TD (+106): KC has a strong 60.0% red-zone TD rate (78th percentile), and +106 is a fair price in a game where one score can decide it.

This matchup has playoff energy and division pressure baked in. Kansas City needs a win to steady its season, and Los Angeles wants to prove Week 1 was not a fluke. The setting favors the Chiefs, but the Chargers’ drive-by-drive style can travel.

If the Chargers protect Herbert and keep converting third downs, they can shorten the game and keep Mahomes watching from the sideline. The biggest issue is finishing. Los Angeles has struggled to turn red-zone trips into touchdowns, which can leave the door open for a late Chiefs surge.

For Kansas City, the plan is pretty clear: play fast, stay in shotgun, and keep the chains moving. If the Chiefs avoid mistakes and get even a few explosives, their pace can flip the scoreboard quickly. But the injury tags in the secondary and on the offensive line make the clean version of that plan less certain.

From a betting lens, the number says KC is the better team at home, but the total is modest for two big-name QBs. With red-zone and injury volatility in play, I lean toward unders and selective props, and I keep stakes reasonable until final inactive news hits.