• Rams passing game can stress a wounded secondary
  Los Angeles ranks 100th percentile in deep pass explosiveness and 88th percentile in overall explosive pass rate on a large sample. Arizona is missing at least one starting cornerback, has several others Questionable, and already allows explosive passes at 7.8 percent, which is below average.

• Cardinals offense needs long drives, not quick strikes
  Arizona's big play touchdown rate is only 2.7 percent on a small sample of 37 big plays, near the bottom of the league. They instead rely on a solid third down conversion rate (45.5 percent) and tempo to move the ball, which means they must string together long drives against a Rams defense that is 69 percent percentile or better in long drive efficiency allowed and red zone TD prevention.

• Rams run defense vs a patched together Cardinals backfield
  The Rams allow explosive runs on only 2.4 percent of carries, which is 88th percentile, while the Cards' backfield is without James Conner and Trey Benson and has Emari Demercado and Bam Knight listed as Questionable. That pushes Arizona toward short passing and play action rather than a consistent ground attack.

• Arizona's pace vs Rams' more balanced tempo
  The Cardinals run plays at 112 percent of league average pace (95th percentile) and use no huddle on 8.7 percent of snaps. The Rams sit closer to average in plays per minute and lean heavily under center (71.8 percent of snaps, 97th percentile), which supports more play action and methodical drives. That tempo mismatch can produce extra possessions and total play volume.

• Rams defense is bend but not break, especially in the red zone
  Los Angeles is 81st percentile in red zone TDs allowed at just 50.0 percent, and they generate turnovers on 2.1 percent of defensive snaps (80th percentile). They are more average in explosive passes allowed, which fits a script where Arizona can move the ball between the 20s but may stall out for field goals.

• Injuries in the trenches could shift how each offense attacks
  The Rams have several offensive linemen Questionable and already lost Rob Havenstein to injured reserve, which could limit their run game and increase pressure on Stafford. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have multiple injured linemen and tackles of their own, tied to a 7.6 percent sack rate allowed, and face a Rams front that is at least league average in pressure to sack conversion. How many of these linemen are active will shape both game plan and success rate.

• Spread: Rams -8.0 with heavy respect for the favorite
  The market lists the Rams around -8.0 (-118) with Arizona at +8.0 (-112). That is a big number on the road, but it matches a matchup where the Rams are top tier in explosive passing and red zone efficiency and the Cardinals are on a backup quarterback behind a banged up line. Given Arizona's mix of close losses and occasional blowouts, this spread carries real variance.

• Total: 48.0 points reflects pace and explosive profile
  The main total around 48.0 with Over -112 and Under -120 suggests modestly more interest in a high scoring game. Arizona's fast pace and the Rams' deep passing profile support scoring, but both teams also have red zone defenses that can force field goals. With juice on both sides, bettors should decide whether they believe in sustained Cardinals scoring more than Rams offense alone.

• Rams team total pointed toward the high 20s
  Los Angeles is lined around 28 to 28.5 points, with the Over at -122 or -114 depending on the exact number. That reflects faith in Stafford and McVay to bounce back from a three turnover game and exploit a Cardinals defense that struggles with explosive runs and passes and is thin in the secondary. The risk is the Rams injury list on the offensive line and at receiver, which could cap their ceiling if multiple skill players sit.

• Cardinals team total below 20 underscores offensive concerns
  Arizona's team total sits around 19.5 points, with the Under priced at about -109. This matches a profile where the Cards move the ball decently on third downs but lack big play scoring and now face a Rams defense that is strong in the red zone and against explosive runs. If one or both of Harrison and Wilson miss, or if the RB room does not get healthier, this Under looks in line with the matchup.

• Stafford passing yards set in the low 260s
  Matthew Stafford's passing line is 261.5 yards, with both Over and Under priced around -119 to -120. Given the Rams elite deep passing metrics and Arizona's injuries at corner, the number bakes in a strong performance already. The Over leans on game script where the Rams stay aggressive for four quarters rather than leaning on the run late.

• Trey McBride and Puka Nacua props show clear focal points
  Trey McBride's receiving line of 77.5 yards and Puka Nacua's 91.5 yards sit near the top of the board for pass catchers, both with juiced Over prices in the -118 to -120 range. That signals the market's expectation that McBride is Brissett's primary target and that Nacua is the main downfield option for Stafford. With both offenses dealing with injuries at wide receiver, these numbers carry a high floor in target volume but also heavy juice and some risk if defensive focus or game flow shifts.

Remember that nearly all of these numbers are priced with juice on both sides. That means you need a real edge in your read, not just a lean, to overcome the built in cost.

This Rams at Cardinals matchup sets up as a classic contender vs spoiler game in December. Los Angeles is trying to rebound from a turnover heavy loss and keep pace in a tight NFC West race. Arizona is playing for pride and evaluation, but they have shown enough fight to keep games interesting, even if the final record does not show it.

On the field, the biggest edge belongs to the Rams passing game. Stafford is backed by an offense that creates explosive plays down the field at an elite rate and finishes drives in the red zone. Arizona's defense, already soft in explosive play prevention, comes in with a long injury list in the secondary and front seven. If the Rams protection holds up despite their own OL injuries, it is hard to see the Cardinals fully containing the passing attack.

The Cardinals need a clean game from Jacoby Brissett and a smart plan from the coaching staff. Their best traits are pace and third down efficiency, which can keep the chains moving and keep the game from getting out of hand early. But with Murray and multiple weapons sidelined or Questionable, and with a Rams defense that is tough in the red zone and against explosive runs, Arizona may again have to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

For bettors, this all lines up with the current market view. Rams as heavy favorites around -8 and a total near 48 fit the talent gap, but big spreads bring variance, especially with both teams so banged up. Props around Stafford, McBride, Nacua and Kyren Williams all tell the story of where these offenses want to go. Any position should start with injuries and matchup traits first, then price, and avoid assuming that even a strong statistical edge guarantees the result on Sunday.