• Rams vertical passing vs 49ers pass rush and coverage
  The Rams rank at the top of the league in explosive passing, with a 10.6% explosive_pass_rate and 9.2% deep_pass_expl rate, which means many throws gain at least 15 or 20 yards. San Francisco’s defense actually limits explosive passes well at 6.8%, but traits show a weak pass rush with only 2.6% sack_rate_generated, so Stafford may have time to attack downfield.

• Rams defense is elite on money downs
  Los Angeles posts a 67.3% third_down_stop_rate over 153 plays and a 54.7% third_and_short_stuff rate on 53 snaps. That kind of success on third down can stall long 49ers drives, even though San Francisco’s offense converts third downs at 47.1%. This clash on key downs could decide whether the 49ers can keep up.

• Christian McCaffrey faces a tough run front but should see volume
  Rams run defense allows explosive gains on only 2.3% of carries faced, a strong mark across 310 rushes. San Francisco’s own explosive_run_rate is just 2.4%, so McCaffrey likely needs volume and short gains, not long runs, to carry the offense. With many 49ers receivers Questionable or out, traits and injuries both point to McCaffrey staying central to the game plan.

• 49ers offensive style is efficient, not explosive
  San Francisco’s offense looks more methodical than explosive. They sit at 47.1% on third_down_conversion and 30.4% on third_and_long_conversion, both strong marks, but pair that with a low 7.1% big_play_touchdown_rate and the low explosive_run_rate. That profile suggests long, sustained drives rather than quick strikes.

• Rams red zone defense could force field goals
  The Rams allow touchdowns on only 42.9% of red zone trips (42-sample), among the best rates in the league, and they post a 63.6% goal_line_stuff_rate on a smaller sample of 33 snaps. The 49ers offense scores touchdowns on 56.7% of red zone chances. If those trends hold, San Francisco may need to settle for field goals more often than it likes.

• Injuries change how both sides can win
  The 49ers front seven is missing Warner, Bosa, and others, which matches their low pass-rush traits and puts more pressure on a secondary that has held up well. On the Rams side, Questionable tags on Adams, Nacua, and multiple linemen threaten their elite passing profile. Bettors should treat any pre-game status changes as a major shift in how the game may unfold.

• Tight spread with heavy juice on the favorite
  The anchor spread sits at Rams -3.5 (-161) and 49ers +3.5 (+114). That price shows clear market respect for Los Angeles but also makes it expensive to lay the points. Backing the Rams at this number leans on their elite explosive_pass_rate and strong third_down_stop_rate, while taking the 49ers plus the hook leans into the underdog trend in this rivalry and the chance that their high third_down_conversion rate keeps it close.

• Total of 49.5 points reflects two different offensive styles
  The main total is 49.5, with the Over priced at -122 and the Under at -114. The Over side leans on Stafford’s big-play connection with Adams and Nacua plus the 49ers third-down efficiency. The Under side leans on the Rams ability to limit explosive runs and red zone touchdowns, plus San Francisco’s methodical pace rather than a track meet.

• Moneyline choice reflects trust in Rams defense and passing
  The Rams sit at -238 on the moneyline, with the 49ers at +198. Laying that price means trusting the combination of strong Rams pass protection (only a 4.2% sack_rate_allowed) and their top-tier deep passing to overcome the road setting. Taking the plus money on San Francisco leans more on home field, the Mac Jones storyline, and the historical underdog success, but comes with clear risk against a defense giving up few points per game.

• Stafford passing prop aligns with the traits but at a cost
  Matthew Stafford’s passing line is 267.5 yards, with the Over at -120 and the Under at -119. The Over aligns with the Rams explosive_pass_rate of 10.6 percent and their 91.3 percent long_drive_efficiency, but the Niners defense does a decent job limiting explosive passes and could force shorter throws. The tight pricing on both sides shows the market expects a high-volume passing script but leaves little margin for error.

• Feature receiver props hinge on health
  Davante Adams has a receiving line of 61.5 yards (Over -122, Under -118) and Puka Nacua sits at 97.5 yards (Over -118, Under -122). Those numbers match their high-usage roles from the storylines and the Rams deep-passing traits, but both are listed as Questionable. Any Over bet here carries higher variance, while Unders at similar juice lean on the injury risk and the possibility that SF’s 6.8% expl_pass_allowed rate keeps a lid on explosive gains.

• Running back props highlight different paths for McCaffrey and Kyren
  Christian McCaffrey’s rushing line is 62.5 yards (Over -123, Under -116), with a receiving line of 51.5 yards (Over -118). Given SF’s low explosive_run_rate and the Rams strong run defense, his receiving Over may better match his volume-heavy role, while the rush Over asks him to grind out tough yards. Kyren Williams, on the other side, has 64.5 rushing yards (Over -116) and is -101 to score anytime. Those prices tie into the storyline of his heavy red zone volume and the Rams solid 57.1% redzone_td_rate, but touchdowns are always high variance.

Rams vs 49ers brings almost everything bettors like in a late-season divisional game. You get a tight spread, a near-50 total, strong narratives on both sidelines, and clear statistical strengths that clash head-on. The Rams look like the more explosive team by the traits, especially in the passing game, and their defense has backed up the reputation from the storylines with elite work on third down and in the red zone.

San Francisco leans more on efficiency than splash plays. Their offense converts third downs at a high rate and can stay on schedule, but lacks the same explosive run profile and is missing key pieces at receiver and in the front seven. Christian McCaffrey’s massive workload plus a long injury list make the 49ers harder to project, especially with both Mac Jones and Brock Purdy carrying Questionable tags.

From a betting angle, the market has tilted toward the Rams, but the price reflects that respect. Laying -3.5 at heavy juice or -238 on the moneyline demands real confidence that Stafford, Adams, and Nacua will be healthy enough to fully leverage their deep-pass traits. The 49ers plus the points or at plus money offer a higher-variance path that leans on home field, coaching, and their own strong third-down metrics to keep this game inside a field goal.

No matter which side or prop you consider, the long injury reports and contrasting styles should keep you honest with your bankroll. A few deep shots, a key red zone stop, or a single turnover could flip not just the result, but multiple markets tied to this game. Treat the juice with respect, assume some weirdness in a heated rivalry, and build your card around the game scripts you trust most rather than chasing a “sure thing.”