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KC
LV
Game Preview
Arrowhead gets a classic AFC West meeting on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Chiefs host the Raiders in a game both teams need. Kansas City sits at .500 and wants a run. Las Vegas is trying to climb back after a slow start.
The matchup leans Chiefs on the details. Kansas City finishes drives at a strong clip in the red zone. The line also protects well. That steadiness helps when games slow down in October weather.
Las Vegas brings a puncher’s chance through its passing explosives. The Raiders create chunk gains, which means one mistake by the Chiefs can flip field position fast. But the Raiders’ line is thin with injuries, which raises sack risk and drive stalls.
Both teams have key players listed questionable. That can swing target shares and the plan on third down. Check inactives before you fire at props with those names.
Current Season Form
KC
AwayLV
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | vs DET | W 30-17 | W +2.5 | u51.5 |
| 2025-10-06 | @ JAX | L 28-31 | W +-3.5 | o45.5 |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | W 37-20 | W +-2.5 | o48.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NYG | W 22-9 | W +-6.0 | u44.5 |
| 2025-09-14 | vs PHI | L 17-20 | L -1.5 | u46.5 |
| 2025-09-05 | @ LAC | L 21-27 | L -3.0 | o47.5 |
| 2025-02-09 | @ PHI | L 22-40 | L -1.5 | o48.5 |
| 2025-01-26 | vs BUF | W 32-29 | W +1.5 | o49.5 |
| 2025-01-18 | vs HOU | W 23-14 | W +9.5 | u41.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | @ DEN | L 0-38 | L 10.5 | u40.5 |
Key Insights
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Chiefs finish drives: Kansas City has a 68.0% red-zone TD rate. That matches a Raiders defense that has allowed TDs on 57.1% of trips.
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Pass pro edge to KC: The Chiefs allow sacks on only 4.5% of dropbacks. The Raiders’ rush sits mid-pack at 5.6%.
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Raiders can pop explosives: Las Vegas posts a 9.8% explosive pass rate (gains of 15+). The Chiefs have allowed 8.2% explosive passes.
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LV struggles to sustain: Long-drive efficiency is just 65.0% (small sample 20 drives), which can cap time of possession.
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KC offensive shape: Shotgun rate is 65.0% (very high). That supports quick-game throws to the middle and flats.
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Injury impact: The Raiders’ OL is heavily dinged (two tackles and the center out/IR). The Chiefs list their LT and multiple WRs as Questionable, which adds volatility to their pass plan.
Betting Insights
Spread, anchor: Chiefs -11.5 (-122). KC’s sack rate allowed 4.5% vs LV’s 8.8% sacks allowed and Raiders’ OL injuries tilt the efficiency gap.
Total, anchor: 46.0 — Under -125 / Over -111. KC’s no-huddle rate is just 2.3%, and LV’s long-drive efficiency is 65.0%; both can slow total plays.
Chiefs team total Over 28.5 (+100): KC converts the red zone at 68.0%; LV has given up TDs on 57.1% of red-zone trips.
Raiders team total Under 16.0 (-115): Protection issues plus 65.0% long-drive efficiency and a 38.9% red-zone TD rate point lower.
Geno Smith Under 200.5 passing (-120): KC’s third-down stop rate is 61.2% and LV’s sacks-allowed rate is 8.8%, both negative for volume.
Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+148): KC’s 68.0% red-zone TD rate gives the star tight end steady scoring equity.
Final Summary
Kansas City owns the cleaner edges: pass protection, red-zone finish, and a stable third-down profile. Those traits often decide double-digit spreads. If the Chiefs play on schedule, they can stretch a lead.
Las Vegas needs splash plays to hang around. The Raiders have that in their toolkit, but the injured line raises sack and penalty risk. Long fields make it tougher to cash in.
The board reflects that gap. We anchored to Chiefs -11.5 and a total at 46.0. Team totals split the difference, with KC near 29 and LV near 16.
Expect Kansas City to lean on shotgun and quick game, then hit play-action shots when coverage bites. If the Raiders protect well enough to free a few explosives, they can make this sweaty. If not, the Chiefs’ efficiency should carry the day.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 103 | #29 | 124 | #21 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 17.2 | #29 | 20.7 | #11 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 10 | #29 | 13 | #14 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 7 | #27 | 7 | #8 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 3 | #28 | 6 | #23 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #17 | 0 | #4 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 41 | #22 | 40 | #22 | 🏈 |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 1 | #8 | 0 | #25 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 8 | #29 | 13 | #16 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 1209 | #15 | 1152 | #23 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 202 | #18 | 192 | #25 | |
| Passer Rating | 76.6 | #30 | 92.4 | #17 | |
| Passing Attempts | 186 | #17 | 175 | #8 | |
| Completions | 123 | #19 | 122 | #21 | |
| Completion Percentage | 66.1 | #20 | 69.7 | #27 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 64 | #15 | 58 | #11 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 59.3 | #9 | 50.9 | #8 | |
| Longest Pass | 61 | #12 | 44 | #27 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #30 | 1 | #11 | |
| Receiving Targets | 182 | #17 | 167 | #25 | |
| Receptions | 123 | #19 | 122 | #13 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 710 | #8 | 613 | #16 | |
| YAC Average | 5.8 | #6 | 5.0 | #19 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 631 | #19 | 715 | #20 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 105 | #23 | 119 | #14 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 159 | #16 | 152 | #19 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4 | #22 | 4.7 | #8 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 33 | #24 | 44 | #25 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 3 | #19 | 1 | #31 | |
| Long Rushing | 64 | #8 | 71 | #3 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 3 | #19 | 1 | #31 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #17 | 1 | #11 | |
Game Preview of Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs. Week 7 of 2025 NFL Season
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