• Explosive vs bend-don’t-break in the passing game
  Seattle leads the league in explosive pass rate at 11.2 percent, while Minnesota allows explosive passes on only 4.9 percent of attempts. Explosive plays are gains of 15 or more yards, so this is a classic big-play offense against a defense that limits deep shots.

• Blitz-heavy Vikings vs Darnold’s blitz answers
  Flores sends extra rushers more than any other coach, and Minnesota ranks near the top in pressure and sack rate. Darnold, though, ranks among the best quarterbacks when blitzed, with over 10 yards per attempt in those situations, so Seattle will look for hot routes and built-in answers.

• Seattle pass rush vs Minnesota’s shaky protection
  The Vikings allow sacks on 9.8 percent of dropbacks, one of the worst rates in the league. Seattle generates sacks on 7.5 percent of opponent dropbacks and just posted 42 pressures in one game, so Brosmer is likely to see constant heat.

• Injured secondaries on both sides
  Minnesota is without Harrison Smith and has multiple defensive backs Questionable. Seattle is also missing or managing several safeties and corners. Both teams may need to lean on pass rush to protect thin back ends, especially if coverage communication breaks down.

• Run-game leverage if Seahawks lead
  Seattle ranks high in explosive run rate at 4.8 percent and plays under center on 67 percent of snaps, which often blends well with play action. If the Seahawks play from ahead as the spread suggests, they can lean on the run and grind away the clock while still threatening chunk plays.

• Vikings offense is slow-paced and inconsistent
  Minnesota runs plays at a slow tempo and converts only 34.6 percent of third downs, near the bottom of the league. That makes long scoring drives hard to sustain, a major issue when you are a double-digit underdog.

• Side: Seahawks -11.5 (-118) vs Vikings +11.5 (-114)
  The spread reflects a big gap at quarterback and in the trenches. Seattle is 8-3 with elite explosive metrics, while Minnesota brings a rookie passer, a poor 9.8 percent sack rate allowed, and a heavy injury list. Backdoor cover risk is real with a number this big.

• Total: 41.0 points (Over -119, Under -114)
  The total in the low 40s respects Minnesota’s defensive strength and offensive issues. A likely game script would be Seattle in the high 20s and Minnesota in the low teens. Any tilt toward a slower, run-heavy second half favors the under, but Darnold vs an all-out blitz can create fast points.

• Team totals: Vikings 13.5 (Under -118, Over -120)
  With an implied team total around 13.5 points, markets see a tough night for Brosmer. Minnesota’s third-down rate at 34.6 percent and the matchup with Seattle’s pass rush support a lean to the under, but you are paying moderate juice on either side.

• Team totals: Seahawks 27.0 (Over -112, Under -127)
  Seattle’s number around 27 points lines up with their explosive pass rate and strong long-drive efficiency at 93.5 percent. The over at -112 is cheaper than the under, but it still needs four touchdowns or three touchdowns plus a couple of field goals in a game where they might pull back late if it gets out of hand.

• Sam Darnold passing yards 232.5 (Over -118, Under -120)
  Darnold’s efficiency and big-play connection with JSN favor the over, especially against a blitz that can leave one-on-ones. The risk is a run-heavy script if Seattle jumps out early, and the fact you are laying juice on either side means you should be confident in the game staying somewhat competitive.

• Max Brosmer passing yards 174.5 (Over -120, Under -119)
  With the Vikings implied for only 13.5 points, a battered OL, and Seattle’s strong sack rate, the under has a strong matchup case. However, low numbers can be fragile. A couple of catch-up drives in the second half could push Brosmer over 175, so understand the variance.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba receiving yards 95.5 (Over -120, Under -118)
  JSN averages about 119 yards per game and has cleared 167 yards in the last outing. The over at -120 lines up with his role and Minnesota’s thin secondary, but that is a steep price and Seattle could spread the ball more if key Vikings corners miss the game.

This matchup centers on one question: can the Vikings protect Max Brosmer well enough to keep up with Sam Darnold and an explosive Seahawks offense? Seattle holds the statistical edge in explosive plays, pass protection, and pass rush. The line at around Seahawks -11.5 and a total near 41 reflects that gap.

Minnesota’s best hope is its defense. Flores can still dial up pressure at a high rate and has built a unit that limits deep shots even with injuries in the secondary. If they can bother Darnold, force a couple of mistakes, and keep JSN from taking the game over, they can drag this contest into a lower-scoring grind.

On offense, though, the Vikings face a steep climb. A rookie quarterback, an injured offensive line, and a shaky run game behind him all point toward stalled drives and field position issues. Their team total at 13.5 shows how little margin for error they have. Any turnovers or early three-and-outs could bury them quickly.

For bettors, the story is simple but not risk-free. Seattle checks most of the boxes, yet you are paying a premium on a double-digit spread and juiced props. If you believe the Seahawks’ explosive passing attack continues to roll and Brosmer struggles in his first start, you will likely lean toward Seattle sides and unders tied to the Vikings offense. If you trust Flores’ defense to keep things respectable, teasing the total or staying away from the big spread may be the safer call.