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DEN
NE
Game Preview
The New England Patriots face the Broncos on Sunday, Jan. 25 (3:00 PM ET) at Empower Field at Mile High. The betting market sees New England as the clear favorite, but this matchup has a real “styles make fights” feel.
The biggest storyline is under center. Bo Nix is out for Denver, so Jarrett Stidham steps into a brutal spot against a defense that can win with coverage and pressure. If Denver can’t protect and can’t create easy throws, the Broncos may have to play slow and lean on field position.
When New England has the ball, the chess match flips. The Patriots’ pass game has been explosive all year, but Denver’s defense is built to erase big plays and end drives. That sets up a key question: can the Patriots stay on schedule, or do they get stuck in long-yardage downs where Denver’s rush takes over?
This game could swing on hidden details: third downs, sacks, and red-zone snaps. If either offensive line has a bad day, the scoreboard can stall out fast.
Current Season Form
DEN
AwayNE
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | vs BUF | W 33-30 | W +1.5 | o45.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | vs LAC | W 19-3 | W +14.5 | u37.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | @ KC | W 20-13 | W +-13.5 | u37.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | L 20-34 | L 3.5 | o46.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs GB | W 34-26 | W +-1.5 | o42.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | W 24-17 | W +-8.5 | o40.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | W 27-26 | W +-6.5 | o43.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | W 22-19 | L -3.5 | u44.5 |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | W 10-7 | W +9.5 | u42.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | W 18-15 | W +1.5 | u40.5 |
Key Insights
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Denver’s defense is elite at ending drives. The Broncos rank 100th percentile in third-down stop rate (66.0%).
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New England converts third downs at a high level. The Patriots sit at 49.5% on third down (94th percentile), so something has to give.
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Denver brings heat and finishes the play. The Broncos are 100th percentile in sack rate generated (9.7%) and pressure-to-sack conversion (9.7%).
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New England’s protection is a concern in this matchup. The Patriots allowed sacks on 8.3% of dropbacks (16th percentile).
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New England can hit chunk passes, but Denver rarely allows them. Patriots explosive pass rate is 9.9% (97th percentile), while Denver explosive passes allowed is 4.8% (97th percentile).
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Injuries could tilt the perimeter. Broncos QB Bo Nix is out, and Patriots CB Carlton Davis is questionable, which matters for how Denver attacks outside.
Betting Insights
Patriots -5.0 (-114): Denver’s QB change raises the floor for New England’s defense, and the matchup leans toward a lower-variance Patriots win if they avoid big mistakes.
Under 42.5 (-118): Both defenses have profiles that kill explosives and create sacks, and Denver’s offense is missing its starter at QB.
Patriots ML (-275): The price is steep. If you hate laying points, just know you’re paying heavy juice for it.
Broncos team total Under 17.5 (-122): A backup QB plus a tough third-down defense across the ball can make sustained scoring drives hard to find.
Patriots team total Under 23.5 (-120): Denver’s stop rates are real, and New England may need to string together long drives instead of quick strikes.
Prop angle to match the game script: Stidham Under 199.5 pass yards (-123) fits a conservative Denver plan in a game with a 42.5 total.
Final Summary
This matchup sets up as a grind. Denver’s defense can absolutely keep the Broncos in it, especially if the pass rush wins early downs and forces New England into long-yardage throws. That’s where sacks and punts pile up.
The hard part for Denver is scoring enough. With Bo Nix out, Stidham has to protect the ball and take what the defense gives him. That usually means shorter throws, slower pace, and fewer explosive shots.
From a betting lens, the market says New England is the better team, and it also expects a modest total. Patriots -5.0 (-114) and Under 42.5 (-118) both line up with a game where defense and field position matter more than highlight plays.
If you want to play props, keep it simple and respect volatility around questionable players. My leans are Stidham Under 199.5 pass yards (-123), Maye Under 228.5 pass yards (-120), Diggs Over 46.5 receiving yards (-122), Sutton Over 47.5 receiving yards (-122), and Stevenson anytime TD (+110). These bets can still swing on one broken play, so size accordingly.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 318 | #5 | 192 | #30 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 26.5 | #7 | 17.5 | #3 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 36 | #7 | 17 | #1 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 21 | #5 | 9 | #1 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 12 | #14 | 8 | #8 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 3 | #3 | 0 | #11 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 90 | #9 | 88 | #11 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 2 | #10 | 0 | #23 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 33 | #5 | 13 | #32 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 2970 | #2 | 2044 | #27 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 248 | #6 | 186 | #27 | |
| Passer Rating | 110 | #2 | 78.2 | #30 | |
| Passing Attempts | 357 | #18 | 369 | #17 | |
| Completions | 253 | #8 | 214 | #23 | |
| Completion Percentage | 70.9 | #1 | 58 | #2 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 145 | #4 | 108 | #7 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 58.9 | #11 | 57.1 | #19 | |
| Longest Pass | 72 | #9 | 61 | #19 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 3 | #9 | 1 | #30 | |
| Receiving Targets | 343 | #19 | 354 | #14 | |
| Receptions | 253 | #8 | 214 | #10 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 1232 | #16 | 1087 | #9 | |
| YAC Average | 4.9 | #20 | 5.1 | #14 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 1349 | #11 | 974 | #2 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 112 | #19 | 88.5 | #30 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 347 | #2 | 268 | #9 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 3.9 | #25 | 3.6 | #32 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 81 | #10 | 49 | #1 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 8 | #12 | 2 | #30 | |
| Long Rushing | 69 | #7 | 68 | #9 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 8 | #12 | 2 | #30 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 4 | #2 | 1 | #14 | |
Game Preview of New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos. AFC Championship of 2025-26 NFL Season.
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