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TEN
NE
Game Preview
The Patriots visit the Titans at Nissan Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. It is Mike Vrabel’s first trip back to Nashville as New England’s head coach. Tennessee plays under an interim after Brian Callahan was fired.
On the field, New England brings a cleaner profile. The Pats convert third downs at a healthy rate and protect leads with a sturdy run defense. They also hit chunk plays through the air when they need them. Health bears watching, with Stefon Diggs and Rhamondre Stevenson both listed questionable.
Tennessee is trying to reset. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward is questionable and has taken too many hits behind a line that allows a high sack rate. The Titans’ defense is sound against the run but has been on the field too long due to an offense that struggles on third down.
Emotions will run high, but the matchups point to simple keys. If New England stays on schedule and finishes drives, it can control pace. If Tennessee protects better and steals a few explosives, it can keep this close.
Current Season Form
TEN
AwayNE
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | @ LV | L 10-20 | L 3.5 | u41.5 |
| 2025-10-05 | @ ARI | W 22-21 | L 7.5 | o41.5 |
| 2025-09-28 | @ HOU | L 0-26 | L 7.5 | u39.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | vs IND | L 20-41 | L -6.0 | o43.5 |
| 2025-09-14 | vs LAR | L 19-33 | L -5.5 | o41.5 |
| 2025-09-07 | @ DEN | L 12-20 | L 8.5 | u42.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | vs HOU | L 14-23 | L 2.5 | o36.5 |
| 2024-12-29 | @ JAX | L 13-20 | L -1.0 | u38.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | @ IND | L 30-38 | L 4.0 | o42.5 |
| 2024-12-15 | vs CIN | L 27-37 | L -6.0 | o46.5 |
Key Insights
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Pats choke off big runs: New England allows 2.1% explosive runs. That pairs with Tennessee’s 2.4% explosive run rate, which is near the bottom.
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Third-down gap favors NE: The Patriots convert 41.4% on third down. The Titans’ defense ranks low with a 55.2% stop rate.
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Titans protection is a stress point: Tennessee’s offense allows sacks on 9.4% of dropbacks. New England converts pressure to sacks at 6.7%.
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Red zone push-pull: New England’s defense has allowed TDs on 71.4% of red-zone trips (small sample, 14 plays), which can help a struggling Titans offense if it gets there.
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TEN run D can force the pass: Titans allow only 2.0% explosive runs, so New England may need more play-action and quick game.
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Pats deep shots vs TEN coverage: New England’s 6.7% deep-pass explosiveness is strong, while Tennessee’s defense has kept explosive passes in check at 6.6% allowed.
Betting Insights
Spread, anchor: Patriots -7.0 (-115). Matchup leans to NE on third downs (41.4%) and against a line allowing 9.4% sacks.
Total, anchor: 43.0 with Under -123 / Over -105. Titans’ offense sits near the bottom on third down (30.5%), which can drain possessions.
Titans team total Under 16.5 (-112): Low 30.5% third-down conversion and high sack rate work against sustained drives.
Cam Ward Under 214.5 passing (-120), volatility (Q): Pressure and third-down issues can cap attempts and yards.
Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+205): NE red-zone TD rate 60.0% vs TEN red-zone TD allowed 58.8% gives fair touchdown equity at a plus price.
Chig Okonkwo Over 39.5 receiving (-122): NE has allowed 12.7% explosive passes; a TE-friendly path if game script trails.
Final Summary
New England owns the cleaner down-to-down edges. The Pats win more third downs and stop explosive runs. That usually travels well. If their questionable playmakers suit up, the ceiling rises.
Tennessee needs cleaner protection and a spark from its skill players. If Cam Ward plays and the Titans stay ahead of the sticks, they can trade punts and wait for a mistake. The margin for error is thin, especially in the red area.
From a numbers view, the board lines up with Patriots -7.0 and a modest total around 43.0. Titans’ scoring props lean Under unless they flip the third-down script.
Expect a physical game with long fields. The team that protects its quarterback and finishes inside the 20 should walk out with the cover.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 150 | #9 | 161 | #6 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 25 | #11 | 26.8 | #26 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 18 | #9 | 18 | #27 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 10 | #13 | 7 | #7 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 6 | #14 | 11 | #32 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 2 | #1 | 0 | #2 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 38 | #25 | 47 | #12 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 2 | #2 | 0 | #16 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 14 | #13 | 17 | #7 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 1467 | #6 | 1258 | #18 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 244 | #6 | 210 | #20 | |
| Passer Rating | 112 | #3 | 94.3 | #15 | |
| Passing Attempts | 180 | #20 | 181 | #11 | |
| Completions | 131 | #12 | 128 | #16 | |
| Completion Percentage | 72.8 | #2 | 70.7 | #28 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 70 | #10 | 57 | #9 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 59.3 | #8 | 49.1 | #5 | |
| Longest Pass | 55 | #18 | 43 | #28 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #13 | 1 | #10 | |
| Receiving Targets | 173 | #20 | 175 | #20 | 🏈 |
| Receptions | 131 | #12 | 128 | #17 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 648 | #14 | 692 | #23 | |
| YAC Average | 4.9 | #16 | 5.4 | #24 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 549 | #25 | 802 | #26 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 91.5 | #26 | 134 | #8 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 158 | #17 | 179 | #27 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 3.5 | #29 | 4.5 | #10 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 37 | #20 | 43 | #23 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 4 | #12 | 4 | #8 | |
| Long Rushing | 22 | #27 | 71 | #4 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 4 | #12 | 4 | #8 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 3 | #3 | 0 | #21 | |
Game Preview of New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans. Week 7 of 2025 NFL Season
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