• The Jets’ passing game has not produced many chunk gains. Their Explosive Pass Rate sits at 4.1% (6th percentile), which can make it hard to rally if they fall behind.

• New York’s best offensive trait is the run popping big plays. Their Explosive Run Rate is 6.5% (97th percentile), so Jacksonville must tackle well in space.

• Jacksonville’s defense usually wins at the goal line. The Jaguars have a 70.0% Goal Line Stuff Rate (100th percentile), which can turn Jets red-zone trips into field goals.

• Jets defenders matter this week. If Azareye’h Thomas (CB) misses, New York’s already-shaky explosive pass prevention can get worse.

• The Jets’ quarterback situation is unstable. Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields are both questionable, which can change play-calling and pace.

• Jacksonville has its own watch list up front. If Walker Little and Ezra Cleveland sit, the Jaguars may need quicker throws and more help in protection.

• Jaguars -13.5 (-118) asks for a clean, four-quarter effort. Big spreads bring “backdoor cover” risk, meaning a late TD can flip the result even if Jacksonville controlled the game.

• Total 42.0 (Over -112, Under -120) is modest for a game with a heavy favorite. If Jacksonville hits its team total, the Over becomes very live.

• Jaguars team total Over 27.5 (-114) lines up with the way this game is priced. Jacksonville is also a strong goal-line defense, which can create short fields the other way.

• Jets team total Under 13.5 (-128) is expensive juice, but it matches the Jets’ injury uncertainty at QB and their low explosive pass profile (4.1%, 6th percentile).

• Trevor Lawrence Over 221.5 pass yards (-122) fits a Jets defense that allows explosive passes at 8.2% (16th percentile), especially if Thomas sits.

• Brady Cook Under 159.5 pass yards (-119) is a simple “keep it conservative” angle in a game where New York may struggle to protect and sustain drives.

Jacksonville has the clearer roster, the steadier offense, and the home field. The main question is not talent. It is focus. Big favorites do not always play sharp for 60 minutes, and that is how “trap game” stress shows up.

For New York, the path is narrow but real. They need explosive runs (6.5%, 97th percentile), a few third-down stops (62.7%, 88th percentile), and a clean day from whoever plays quarterback. If they cannot create chunk gains through the air, they have to win with patience.

Jacksonville’s defense should tighten near the goal line (70.0% stuff rate, 100th percentile). That can turn Jets drives into field goals. On the other side, the Jaguars can win if they avoid giveaways and keep stacking first downs.

From a betting angle, the spread is huge, so be honest about variance. If you want Jacksonville, consider whether you trust them to stay aggressive late. If you want the Jets, you are betting on the backdoor and on Jacksonville easing off the gas.