MIA
NYJ
Game Preview
The Jets visit the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on September 29, with kickoff at 1:00 PM ET. Miami is a short home favorite.
This matchup shapes up as ground power versus run leaks. New York rates elite for explosive runs, which are rushes that gain 10 yards or more. Miami’s defense has struggled to prevent those chunk gains.
Miami’s offense wins in the red zone and on third down. That matters in a tight spread game because sustained drives turn into points. But several Dolphins playmakers are on the injury report, which adds late-week volatility.
Quarterback is the Jets’ swing factor. Justin Fields is Questionable after a concussion. If he plays, designed runs and scramble yards can help the Jets keep schedule. If not, the attack likely leans even harder on Breece Hall.
Current Season Form
MIA
AwayNYJ
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-18 | @ BUF | L 21-31 | L 12.5 | o50.5 |
| 2025-09-14 | vs NE | L 27-33 | L 1.5 | o43.5 |
| 2025-09-07 | @ IND | L 8-33 | L 1.5 | u47.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | @ NYJ | L 20-32 | L 1.5 | o39.5 |
| 2024-12-29 | @ CLE | W 20-3 | W +-3.0 | u32.5 |
| 2024-12-22 | vs SF | W 29-17 | W +-2.0 | o44.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | @ HOU | L 12-20 | L 2.5 | u46.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | vs NYJ | W 32-26 | W +6.5 | o45.0 |
| 2024-11-28 | @ GB | L 17-30 | L 3.5 | u47.5 |
| 2024-11-24 | vs NE | W 34-15 | W +7.5 | o46.0 |
Key Insights
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Jets rushing edge: NYJ explosive run rate is 9.8% (100th percentile; sample 82). Miami allows explosive runs at 8.2% (9th percentile; sample 97).
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Miami finishes drives: Dolphins red-zone TD rate is 83.3% (91st; sample 6, small sample), while the Jets’ goal-line stuff rate is just 16.7% (6th; sample 6, small sample).
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Money downs clash: Miami converts 54.3% on third down (100th; sample 35), but the Jets’ defense owns a 64.9% third-down stop rate (73rd; sample 37).
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Jets passing downs lag: NYJ converts only 6.3% on third-and-long (3rd; sample 16), signaling issues when behind the sticks.
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Explosive passes allowed: Jets give up explosive passes on 13.0% of attempts (3rd; sample 92). If Tyreek Hill (Q) or Jaylen Waddle win outside, Miami can create chunk gains.
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Injuries matter: Jets have OL hits (Alijah Vera-Tucker IR; C Gus Hartwig IR; LT Esa Pole Q). Miami lists Tyreek Hill (Q), De’Von Achane (Q), and Darren Waller (Q). Availability directly ties to the explosive-play and red-zone traits above.
Betting Insights
Anchor spread: Dolphins -3.5 (+100). Even money on the home side, but the hook adds risk in a close game.
Anchor total: 45.5 (Over +106, Under -128). Under is juiced, matching Miami’s low explosive pass rate and the Jets’ third-and-long issues.
Dolphins team total 23.5 (Over -116, Under -122). Miami’s red-zone TD rate supports the Over, but note the tight juice both ways.
Jets team total 20.5 (Over -116, Under -122). NYJ ground edge points to scoring chances if drives stay on schedule.
Breece Hall over 47.5 rushing yards (-116). Trait edge is clear: No. 1 explosive run rate vs a defense that leaks chunk runs.
Jaylen Waddle Anytime TD (+162). Price pairs with NYJ’s high explosive-pass rate allowed. De’Von Achane Anytime TD (-137) is also viable if he’s active.
Final Summary
This looks like a trench and situational football game. The Jets can tilt it on the ground with Breece Hall if they avoid long-yardage downs. Miami can answer by winning third downs and finishing in the red zone.
Injuries will steer the script. If Justin Fields plays, his legs add a layer the Dolphins have to account for. If Tyreek Hill or De’Von Achane sit, Miami’s explosive ceiling dips, and the grind matters more.
From a numbers view, the market sits near a field goal and a mid-40s total. That matches the profile: steady drives, a few splash runs, and key third downs.
Bet responsibly. Prices carry juice and the inactives list can swing both props and side totals. Scale positions to the uncertainty and be ready to adjust when statuses lock.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 69 | #16 | 97 | #1 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 23 | #16 | 32.3 | #32 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 8 | #13 | 11 | #31 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 4 | #17 | 6 | #26 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 3 | #14 | 4 | #29 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 1 | #5 | 1 | #25 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 21 | #21 | 29 | #5 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #19 | 1 | #6 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 6 | #18 | 8 | #8 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 434 | #31 | 676 | #12 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 145 | #31 | 225 | #12 | |
| Passer Rating | 93.6 | #17 | 129 | #1 | |
| Passing Attempts | 80 | #27 | 80 | #4 | |
| Completions | 52 | #31 | 63 | #19 | |
| Completion Percentage | 65 | #17 | 78.8 | #32 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 27 | #26 | 35 | #20 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 49.1 | #29 | 51.5 | #9 | |
| Longest Pass | 33 | #29 | 55 | #6 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #14 | 0 | #18 | |
| Receiving Targets | 77 | #27 | 79 | #29 | |
| Receptions | 52 | #31 | 63 | #13 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 205 | #31 | 401 | #29 | |
| YAC Average | 3.9 | #29 | 6.4 | #31 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 381 | #10 | 435 | #28 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 127 | #10 | 145 | #5 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 83 | #10 | 96 | #30 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4.6 | #14 | 4.5 | #11 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 23 | #5 | 27 | #30 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 1 | #22 | 2 | #7 | |
| Long Rushing | 27 | #14 | 26 | #18 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 1 | #22 | 2 | #7 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 1 | #7 | 0 | #21 | |
Game Preview of New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins. Week 4 of 2025 NFL Season
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