• Seattle’s deep-pass threat is real: 10.5% explosive deep rate (100th percentile, sample 76). Arizona’s corner depth is stressed by injuries.

• Arizona’s defence wins on money downs: 69.2% third-down stop rate (97th percentile, sample 39). That can slow Seattle drives if explosives are contained.

• Seattle’s pass protection travels: 2.6% sack rate allowed (89th percentile, sample 78). Arizona’s pass-rush finish rate is low at 2.7% (12th percentile, sample 146).

• Cardinals’ offence is more shotgun than under-centre (61.1%, 88th percentile), which fits Murray’s rhythm but hasn’t produced many explosives (5.3% explosive pass rate; 19th percentile).

• Conner’s IR shifts Arizona’s identity. Expect more targets for Benson and McBride and a tilt toward quick game rather than power runs.

• Small-sample flags: ARI fourth-down aggression and conversion look elite but are based on 1–3 tries; volatility is high.

Seattle brings a clear identity into Thursday night: protect the quarterback and hunt explosives. If Darnold gets time, the Seahawks’ vertical game can tilt field position and set up Walker in the red zone.

Arizona’s path is tighter. The Cardinals likely lean into quick passes and tempo from shotgun, use McBride as a chain mover, and mix Benson in screens and check-downs. Their defence needs to keep winning on third down and force Seattle to settle for field goals.

Injuries matter. With Conner out and the corner group thin, Arizona must play clean to stay even. Seattle has their own questionables, but their protection numbers and deep-ball profile travel well.

Bottom line: one or two chunk plays can decide this spread. If the Cardinals limit explosives and keep third downs on schedule, they can drag the game toward the mid-40s and make it a coin flip late. If not, Seattle’s plus-money -3.5 ticket becomes very live, while player markets tied to the Seahawks’ passing ceiling gain appeal. As always, respect the juice and the variance.