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PIT
SEA
Game Preview
The Steelers host the Seahawks at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, September 14 (1:00 p.m. ET). Pittsburgh rides the buzz of Aaron Rodgers’ home debut after a sharp Week 1. Seattle is looking to steady the offence with Sam Darnold after a slow start.
Both teams can strike downfield. Seattle’s early deep-ball rate pops (13.6% explosive on 20-plus-yard throws), though it’s a small 22-attempt sample. Pittsburgh’s system also creates chunk plays, with a 9.7% scheme-driven explosive rate. The difference could be red zone. The Steelers finished drives (100% TD rate on a tiny three-trip sample), while Seattle’s defence has been average inside the 20.
Injuries tilt the edges. Pittsburgh is without starting safety DeShon Elliott, and corner Joey Porter Jr. is questionable, which could open the slot for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Up front, PIT’s LT Calvin Anderson is also questionable. For Seattle, LT Charles Cross is questionable and DT Johnathan Hankins is out, adding volatility to protection and run fits.
The market leans Steelers in a grind. The spread sits at -3.5 with a low-to-mid 40s total range. Expect a field-position game with a few explosive shots deciding it.
Current Season Form
PIT
AwaySEA
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-07 | @ NYJ | W 34-32 | W +-3.0 | o37.5 |
| 2025-01-11 | @ BAL | L 14-28 | L 9.5 | u44.5 |
| 2025-01-04 | vs CIN | L 17-19 | L -2.5 | u48.5 |
| 2024-12-25 | vs KC | L 10-29 | L -3.0 | u43.5 |
| 2024-12-21 | @ BAL | L 17-34 | L 7.0 | o44.5 |
| 2024-12-15 | @ PHI | L 13-27 | L 5.5 | u43.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | vs CLE | W 27-14 | W +6.0 | u43.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | @ CIN | W 44-38 | W +3.0 | o46.0 |
| 2024-11-21 | @ CLE | L 19-24 | L -3.5 | o36.5 |
| 2024-11-17 | vs BAL | W 18-16 | L -3.0 | u48.0 |
Key Insights
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Steelers red-zone TD rate is 100% (small sample), while Seattle’s defence allows TDs on 40% of red-zone trips.
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Seattle’s deep explosive pass rate is 13.6% (98th percentile, small 22-attempt sample).
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Pittsburgh’s passing game posts 11.8% explosive pass rate (75th percentile) with 9.7% scheme explosives (94th).
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Seattle offence is at 30% on third downs (19th percentile, 10-play sample), capping drive count.
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Steelers’ defence has allowed a high rate of explosive runs (12.8%, 6th percentile), a path for Kenneth Walker III.
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Secondary health matters: PIT S DeShon Elliott OUT; CB Joey Porter Jr. QUESTIONABLE (volatility). SEA LT Charles Cross QUESTIONABLE.
Betting Insights
Pick, Spread: Steelers -3.5 (+112). Pittsburgh’s red-zone edge and scheme explosives match up with Seattle’s explosive passes allowed (14.7%, 12th percentile).
Total, Anchor: Under 45.0 (-244). Pricey, but both offences show drive-sapping issues (SEA 30% on 3rd downs). If you want less juice, alternatives exist in the market (e.g., Under 41.5 -145), but our anchor is 45.0 per the rules.
Moneyline: Steelers -169. Correlates with the ATS view in a one-score script.
Team Total (PIT 20.5): Over 20.5 (-123). Leans with PIT’s early red-zone finish rate and Seattle’s leakage on explosives.
Aaron Rodgers Pass TDs: Over 1.5 (+122). Finishing power plus SEA’s 14.7% explosive passes allowed backs two scores through the air.
Kenneth Walker III Rush Yards: Over 44.5 (-120). Steelers’ defence has allowed a high explosive run rate (12.8%).
Final Summary
This sets up as a classic Steelers home game: defence, field position, and a few well-timed shots. Pittsburgh’s scheme has generated explosives, and the red-zone finish rate points to enough points to clear the winning line.
Seattle still has a deep-ball gear. But the offence’s third-down issues and a questionable left tackle can stall drives on the road. The Seahawks’ defence has also given up chunk gains through the air, which fits the Steelers’ strengths.
Injuries push us toward Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ secondary is thin, but Seattle must protect long enough to exploit it. Meanwhile, Rodgers should find answers in the low and red-zone passing game.
Pick: Steelers -3.5 (+112). Lean: Under 45.0 (-244) at the anchor, understanding the heavy juice. Prop angles: Rodgers Over 1.5 pass TDs (+122) and Walker Over 44.5 rush yards (-120). Bet responsibly; small early-season samples raise variance.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 13 | #27 | 32 | #5 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 13 | #27 | 32 | #28 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 1 | #25 | 4 | #30 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 0 | #30 | 1 | #21 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 1 | #11 | 3 | #29 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #19 | 0 | #16 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 7 | #20 | 8 | #11 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 0 | #15 | 0 | #20 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 1 | #21 | 2 | #16 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 146 | #25 | 212 | #13 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 146 | #25 | 212 | #13 | |
| Passer Rating | 87.2 | #20 | 119 | #5 | |
| Passing Attempts | 23 | #26 | 22 | #4 | |
| Completions | 16 | #28 | 16 | #28 | 🏈 |
| Completion Percentage | 69.6 | #15 | 72.7 | #24 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 6 | #29 | 9 | #11 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 42.9 | #26 | 39.1 | #4 | |
| Longest Pass | 40 | #8 | 33 | #14 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 2 | #1 | 0 | #15 | |
| Receiving Targets | 22 | #28 | 21 | #29 | |
| Receptions | 16 | #28 | 16 | #6 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 47 | #30 | 76 | #12 | |
| YAC Average | 2.9 | #30 | 4.8 | #19 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 84 | #20 | 182 | #29 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 84 | #20 | 182 | #4 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 26 | #15 | 39 | #31 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 3.2 | #24 | 4.7 | #10 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 6 | #14 | 13 | #31 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 0 | #16 | 0 | #15 | |
| Long Rushing | 9 | #28 | 18 | #13 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 0 | #16 | 0 | #15 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #14 | 0 | #18 | |
Game Preview of Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers. Week 2 of 2025 NFL Season
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