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IND
SF
Game Preview
The San Francisco 49ers visit the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16 on December 22, 2025 at 8:15 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium. San Francisco comes in hot, while Indy is trying to stop a late-season slide with its season on the line.
The biggest storyline is Indianapolis at quarterback. Daniel Jones is on injured reserve, and Anthony Richardson is also on injured reserve. That usually forces a simpler plan: more runs, fewer deep drops, and a lot of “just get to the next snap.”
That matters because San Francisco has been great at winning downs. The 49ers convert 52.4% of their third downs, best in the league by percentile. If SF keeps moving the chains, Indy’s defense gets stuck playing long drives.
When Indy has the ball, the Colts may try to lean on the run game and quick hitters. But if the Colts fall behind early, the QB situation can turn every long-yardage spot into a problem.
Current Season Form
IND
AwaySF
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | @ SEA | L 16-18 | L 13.5 | u41.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | @ JAX | L 19-36 | L -2.5 | o44.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs HOU | L 16-20 | L 3.0 | u44.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | @ KC | L 20-23 | L 3.5 | u50.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ATL | W 31-25 | W +6.5 | o48.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | @ PIT | L 20-27 | L -3.5 | u51.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TEN | W 38-14 | W +15.5 | o47.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | @ LAC | W 38-24 | W +2.5 | o48.5 |
| 2025-10-12 | vs ARI | W 31-27 | W +8.5 | o46.5 |
| 2025-10-05 | vs LV | W 40-6 | W +7.0 | u46.5 |
Key Insights
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SF is built to sustain drives. The 49ers convert 52.4% on third down (100th percentile).
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Indy’s defense has struggled to get off the field. Colts third-down stop rate is 54.9% (28th percentile).
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SF limits explosive passes. The 49ers allow explosive passes at 5.6% (86th percentile).
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Indy can give up chunk plays through the air. Colts “Expl Pass Allowed” sits at 7.7% (25th percentile).
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Colts QB injuries change the whole game. With Jones and Richardson on IR, expect a tighter playbook and more reliance on the run game.
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Key health swing: Colts LT Bernhard Raimann (Questionable) and CB Sauce Gardner (Questionable) can directly impact protection and coverage if they sit or are limited.
Betting Insights
49ers -5.0 (-125): SF’s third-down edge (52.4% conversion) matches up well versus Indy’s weaker third-down defense (28th percentile stop rate).
Under 47.0 (-127): QB uncertainty for Indy and a likely run-leaning plan can drain clock and cut down total plays.
49ers moneyline -300: The price reflects the QB gap. It is expensive, so it fits better in parlays than as a standalone bet.
Colts team total Under 20.0 (-120): Indy needs efficiency to reach 20. With QB injuries, empty drives are a real risk.
George Kittle Over 59.5 receiving yards (-122): Indy’s pass defense profile (25th percentile in explosive pass prevention) leaves room for a high-volume tight end day.
Josh Downs Under 23.5 receiving yards (-116): SF’s explosive-pass defense is strong, and the Colts’ QB situation adds downside to a low yardage line.
Final Summary
This game starts with one simple question: can the Colts function on offense with their quarterback situation? If Indy cannot, it becomes a field-position and clock game fast.
San Francisco’s best on-paper edge is third down. A 52.4% conversion rate means longer drives and more chances to turn red-zone trips into points.
From a betting view, the market is already shading hard toward San Francisco. 49ers -5.0 makes sense if you think Indy’s offense stalls early. The Under 47.0 also fits if the Colts go run-heavy and protect their QB.
Props-wise, I’m looking at Kittle Over 59.5 as a clean matchup play, and I’m cautious with Colts pass-catchers because the QB floor is low. Odds move fast late in the week, so keep an eye on any quarterback confirmation before locking anything in.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 281 | #9 | 229 | #24 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 23.4 | #15 | 20.8 | #9 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 30 | #11 | 25 | #10 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 21 | #4 | 16 | #11 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 9 | #17 | 9 | #13 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #26 | 0 | #2 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 97 | #6 | 73 | #23 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 2 | #5 | 3 | #2 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 22 | #22 | 22 | #21 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 2993 | #1 | 2699 | #7 | |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 249 | #3 | 245 | #5 | |
| Passer Rating | 94.6 | #12 | 85.9 | #25 | |
| Passing Attempts | 420 | #2 | 422 | #29 | |
| Completions | 291 | #1 | 270 | #4 | |
| Completion Percentage | 69.3 | #4 | 64 | #12 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 163 | #1 | 142 | #29 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 62.0 | #4 | 58.2 | #25 | |
| Longest Pass | 56 | #20 | 88 | #1 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 5 | #2 | 3 | #11 | |
| Receiving Targets | 406 | #1 | 404 | #4 | |
| Receptions | 291 | #1 | 270 | #29 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 1412 | #5 | 1377 | #27 | |
| YAC Average | 4.9 | #21 | 5.1 | #15 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 1190 | #23 | 1071 | #7 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 99.2 | #26 | 97.4 | #26 | 🏈 |
| Rushing Attempts | 333 | #3 | 268 | #8 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 3.6 | #30 | 4 | #24 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 83 | #9 | 75 | #14 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 1 | #30 | 4 | #25 | |
| Long Rushing | 20 | #32 | 41 | #24 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 1 | #30 | 4 | #25 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #26 | 2 | #7 | |
Game Preview of San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts. Week 16 of 2025 NFL Season
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