• Tampa Bay ranks in the 92nd percentile for big-play touchdown rate, showing they can score quickly when they strike.
• The Dolphins allow explosive runs at a 6.4% rate, one of the worst marks in the league (3rd percentile).
• Miami’s offense hits explosive runs at a 6.8% clip, tops in the NFL, led by Achane's speed.
• The Buccaneers allow touchdowns on 72.2% of opponent red zone trips, 3rd percentile, a glaring weakness.
• Tampa Bay’s scheme ranks in the 91st percentile for exploiting defensive gaps, a key edge vs. Miami’s shaky third-down defense.
• Both teams have key starters listed as Questionable, including both of Tampa’s offensive tackles and Miami’s Darren Waller and Benito Jones.

Miami’s run game is dangerous, and Achane is the kind of back who can flip a game with one carry. But their defense is vulnerable to being schemed, especially on third downs and explosive passes. That’s where Tampa has the edge if Mayfield gets time.

The 6-point spread leans toward the Bucs, but it’s not without risk given their injury report. If both starting tackles miss the game, Miami’s defense could have the upper hand up front.

Still, with playoff pressure on Tampa and a defense that generates turnovers, they have enough weapons to pull away late, just don’t expect it to be easy.