• The Giants push tempo. They sit at 110.0% plays per minute (86th percentile), plus a high no-huddle rate.

• New York can create explosives through the air. Their deep explosive pass rate is 5.3% (81st percentile).

• The Giants finish big plays at a high rate, but note the small sample: 26.9% big-play TD rate (94th percentile, sample size 52).

• The Giants defense has a major leak versus chunk runs: 6.2% explosive runs allowed (6th percentile).

• The Giants have struggled with takeaways: 0.9% turnover generation rate (6th percentile), which can keep drives alive.

• Watch the injury tag on Theo Johnson (Questionable). If he’s limited, it can hurt New York’s red-zone plan.

• Giants -3.0 (+104): The case is game control through pace (110.0% plays per minute) and a downfield edge (5.3% deep explosive pass rate).

• Under 46.5 (-120): Washington without Daniels can mean fewer clean scoring drives. The juice is heavier, so price-shop if you can.

• Giants moneyline (-141): If you hate the key number, this is the safer path, but you pay for it.

• Mariota Under 205.5 passing yards (-119): Backup-QB weeks often come with lower pass volume and more “get out of trouble” throws.

• Mariota Over 30.5 rushing yards (-115): Scrambles and a few designed keepers can get him there, especially if the pass game stalls.

• Theo Johnson Over 34.5 receiving yards (-116): Only if you accept the injury risk. He’s Questionable, so this can swing fast on Sunday.

This game sets up like a weird mix. The Giants can play fast and hit a couple deep shots. Washington, without Jayden Daniels, may try to shorten the game and protect the ball.

The cleanest matchup angle is on the ground. New York allows explosive runs at a 6.2% rate (6th percentile), so Washington can stay functional even if the passing game is limited. That also makes the spread feel fragile if the Giants do not cash in on early chances.

From a betting view, the board points to a close game with modest scoring. Giants -3.0 (+104) is playable if you believe New York’s pace and deep-pass pop show up. Totals and props carry more variance because injuries can flip game plans.

If you are playing props, I’d keep it simple and respect the tags. Mariota Under 205.5 (-119) and Mariota Over 30.5 (-115) fit a backup-QB script. Theo Johnson Over 34.5 (-116) is a “wait and see” look because he’s Questionable.