+EV Finder
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How EV is calculated — a worked example
The +EV Finder identifies bets where a sportsbook's offered price implies a probability lower than the true probability of winning, derived from the sharpest available market — a betting exchange. Below is a fully worked example using a real opportunity surfaced on this page.
1. Bookmaker price
Caesars: 1.41 (+41 in American)
Implies a win probability of
1 / 1.41 = 70.9%.2. Exchange mid price
Best bid 1.37 / best offer 1.23
Implied true probability ≈
73%, derived from the no-vig midpoint of the exchange.3. Expected Value
EV % =
(1.41 × 0.73) − 1 = 2.93%On a $100 stake, the long-run expectation is +$2.93 per bet.
4. Kelly stake
Full Kelly =
(0.41 × 0.73 − 0.27) / 0.41 = 7.0% of bankrollAt ¼-Kelly (most common): 1.75% of bankroll per bet for variance control.
Every row in the table above is calculated using the same methodology, refreshed continuously as sportsbook and exchange prices change. The opportunities are ranked from highest EV % to lowest.
Further reading
Want to dig deeper into the maths and strategy behind +EV betting? These long-form guides cover the theory, edge cases, and bankroll management techniques used by professional sports bettors.
Expected Value (EV) explained →
A complete guide to expected value in sports betting: definitions, formulas, common misconceptions, and how to spot +EV bets in the wild.
The Kelly Criterion guide →
Learn how Kelly staking maximises bankroll growth, why most bettors use a fractional Kelly multiplier, and how to apply it to every +EV opportunity you find.
Removing the vig from sportsbook odds →
How sportsbook margins distort implied probabilities, why exchange mid prices are the gold standard for fair value, and how to de-vig manually.
Odds format converter →
Convert between American, decimal, and fractional odds, and understand which format suits your betting workflow.
