• Seattle’s pass game ranks first in explosive pass rate (12.4%), while Tampa Bay’s defense sits below average against big plays.

• The Buccaneers are scoring touchdowns on just 36.4% of red-zone trips, one of the worst marks in the league.

• Tampa Bay’s third-down defense remains elite, stopping 67.3% of attempts. That could be critical against Sam Darnold’s short-yardage struggles.

• Injuries to Evans, Godwin, and Mayfield threaten Tampa Bay’s passing traits, forcing Egbuka into a primary role.

• Seattle’s defensive line converts 7.3% of pressures into sacks. Tampa’s offensive line is thin, with Tristan Wirfs and others Questionable.

• Seattle’s defense ranks top tier in limiting explosive runs, allowing just 1.0% of rushes to go for big gains.

• Spread: Seahawks -3.5 (-115). Market leans to Seattle at home despite their 2-7 record in their last nine at Lumen Field.

• Total: Under 45.0 (-111). Both teams rank top half in defensive efficiency; Bucs’ injuries point to a lower total.

• Anytime TD: Kenneth Walker III (-122). Seattle RB continues to see red-zone carries.

• Anytime TD: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+116). Faces banged-up Bucs secondary, likely WR2 volume.

• Player Prop: Emeka Egbuka Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-120). Rookie’s usage surging with Evans out.

• Player Prop: Sam Darnold Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-118). Tampa’s defense allows explosive passes at a 7.4% clip.

This matchup features two NFC contenders but with very different injury stories. Tampa Bay is hanging on with half its starting lineup on the report. If Baker Mayfield can’t go or is limited, their ability to score will be heavily compromised.

Seattle is far from flawless but has been trending up with Sam Darnold’s efficient play and a dangerous group of receivers. If their pass rush gets home against a battered Bucs line, it could tilt the game quickly.

The Bucs’ defense is still stout, especially on third downs, and that gives them a chance to hang around. But their red-zone struggles and missing playmakers make it tough to see them outpacing Seattle’s explosive offense.

Expect a close start, but Seattle has the health and firepower advantage. The betting market reflects that with the Seahawks as short home favourites. With the total at 45, the under may hold more value given Tampa Bay’s offensive limitations.