• Falcons can finish pressures. Atlanta’s pressure-to-sack conversion is 8.3% (81st percentile; sample 84). Washington is down G Sam Cosmi (Out), which can stress protection.

• Explosive passes are hard to find vs ATL. The Falcons allow explosive passes on only 4.9% of attempts (81st; sample 82). That tightens windows if Washington’s top receivers are limited.

• Atlanta’s ground game has burst. The Falcons post a 5.6% explosive run rate (81st; sample 89). That can keep them on schedule even if deep shots aren’t landing.

• Deep shots have stalled for ATL. Atlanta’s deep-pass explosive rate is 0.9% (3rd percentile; sample 108). Drives may rely on short throws and yards after catch.

• Short-yardage defense shows up. The Falcons stop 50.0% of third-and-short tries (83rd; small sample 16). That can flip possessions.

• Injury volatility on both sides. Washington lists Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin as Questionable. Atlanta lists Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and A.J. Terrell as Questionable. Availability will shift matchups at kickoff.

• Anchor spread: Commanders -3.0 at +116 (Falcons +3.0 at -175). Near a key number, so late movement and push equity matter.

• Anchor total: 45.5 with Over -111 and Under -119. Prices slightly shade Over, but WR injuries on both sides add variance.

• Falcons team total 22.5: Over -118 / Under -120. Paired with ATL’s 0.9% deep-pass explosive rate, this projects more methodical scoring.

• Michael Penix Jr. under 227.5 passing yards (-118): Atlanta’s deep game profile suggests fewer chunk gains, which can cap yardage.

• Drake London under 65.5 receiving yards (-119) — volatility: London is Questionable and the deep game has lagged.

• Bijan Robinson over 24.5 receiving yards (-169): Steep juice. Atlanta’s 71.4% shotgun rate (100th percentile) supports quick targets to backs.

• Ray-Ray McCloud III over 17.5 receiving yards (-122): Low line for a short-area role in a scheme that still generates explosives by design (5.3%; 88th).

Washington comes in as a short road favorite with quarterback questions. If Jayden Daniels plays, designed runs and quick reads can help. If not, Marcus Mariota’s legs and timing throws fit a similar plan. Terry McLaurin’s status matters for spacing.

Atlanta needs balance and ball security. The run game has been the most reliable piece. The Falcons defense has limited big pass plays, which can keep them within one score if the offense avoids long-yardage downs.

The market sits near a field goal and mid-40s total. That matches a tight, possession-driven script. Key inactives at wide receiver and in the secondary could move both number and game plan.

Bet with price discipline. Many props sit in the -118 to -122 range and one has heavier juice. Respect the injury volatility and avoid overextending on a single outcome.