Thursday, November 5, 2026. One game on the NFL slate tonight: the Jacksonville Jaguars traveling to Baltimore to face the Baltimore Ravens in a Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens that features 29 players on the anytime touchdown board. I have gone through every number on this board carefully, and I am not recommending a single play tonight. That is not a cop-out. That is the job. The model runs the numbers, I look at where probability and price line up, and tonight the situations that would normally generate a play just are not clean enough to put real money behind. I will explain what I see and let you draw your own conclusions.
How to Read the Model TD% and What It Means
Every player on this board carries a Model TD% and a tier. The tier tells you how much to trust the number. A HIGH tier means the model has a solid sample to work with and the probability is considered reliable. A LOW DATA tier means the model had to lean on positional baselines to generate the number, so treat those figures as rough guides, not precise estimates. The Model TD% itself is a probability, not a prediction. When you see a player at 46.9%, that means the model expects him to score in roughly 47 out of 100 similar games. The other 53, he does not. Even the top player on this board misses more often than he hits. If that reality does not sit well with you, anytime TD props are a tough market to play.
The implied percentage in brackets next to each market price is what the sportsbook's odds translate to in probability terms, before the juice. When the model number and the implied market number are close, the bet is fairly priced and there is no reason to act. When they diverge sharply, that is where you start asking questions. I am going to walk through the most interesting gaps on tonight's board.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: The Board Breakdown
Bhayshul Tuten (JAX, RB) sits at the top of the board with a Model TD% of 46.9% and a HIGH tier. The market has him at +106, which implies 48.5%. The model and the market are essentially in agreement. That close alignment is one reason there is no play here: when the numbers match up this tightly, there is no inefficiency to exploit, just a correctly priced player.
Parker Washington (JAX, WR) comes in second with a Model TD% of 35.9% at HIGH confidence. His market price of +158 implies 38.8%. Again, the market is pricing him above what the model estimates. The board shows the model a step behind the market price on Washington, and that is the wrong direction for a value play.
Derrick Henry (BAL, RB) checks in third at 35.0% Model TD%, HIGH tier, with market odds of +142 implying 41.3%. For the second time in the top three, the market is pricing a player higher than the model. That pattern matters. When the market consistently prices players above the model, playing into that trend means fading the model on purpose.
Zay Flowers (BAL, WR) is the most interesting number on the whole board. His Model TD% is 34.1% at HIGH tier, but the market has him at +340, implying just 22.7%. That is a 11.4 percentage point gap in the model's favor. Under normal circumstances, that kind of spread would be a conversation starter. Tonight, it is not enough for me to make a pick, but it is the number I would circle if I were building a future-reference file on this model's performance. That gap either means the model is seeing something the market is missing or the model is overestimating his role in this offense. I am not in a position to tell you which from the data alone.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (JAX, RB) is the most extreme mismatch in the other direction. His Model TD% is 26.3% at HIGH tier, but the market has him at +106, implying 48.5%. That is a 22.2 percentage point gap where the market thinks he is significantly more likely to score than the model does. That is not a spot to fade the market blindly either. When the market moves that far ahead of the model, it usually reflects information the model's inputs do not fully capture. I am not chasing a 26.3% model number at near-even-money odds.
Brenton Strange (JAX, TE) comes in with a Model TD% of 24.2% at HIGH tier and market odds of +220, implying 31.2%. The market is again pricing him above the model. Jakobi Meyers (JAX, WR) sits at 23.8% with HIGH confidence against +265 implied 27.4%, a smaller gap but still the market slightly ahead. These two are priced close enough to the model that there is no compelling reason to act.
Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX, WR) has a Model TD% of 18.1% at HIGH tier but market odds of +520 imply only 16.1%. That is a small model edge, and small edges in a low-frequency market like touchdown props do not justify a bet. The same goes for Josh Cameron (JAX, WR), also at Model TD% 16.1% and +520. Nate Boerkircher (JAX, TE) comes in at 15.4% against +490 implied 16.9%, another near-even situation.
Rashod Bateman (BAL, WR) catches my eye with a Model TD% of 14.4% at HIGH tier while the market sits at +880, implying just 10.2%. That is a 4.2 point gap in the model's favor. Worth noting, but not a play I am comfortable making tonight. Justice Hill (BAL, RB) at 13.4% versus +440 implied 18.5% and Mark Andrews (BAL, TE) at 11.5% versus +520 implied 16.1% are both cases where the market prices them higher than the model, which again is the wrong direction for a value bet.
Lower-Probability Players and LOW DATA Notes
Further down the board, C.J. Williams (JAX, WR) and Tanner Koziol (JAX, TE) both carry LOW DATA tiers with Model TD% of 10.5%. LOW DATA means the model had limited information and leaned on a positional baseline to generate the number. Read those with real caution. They are listed for transparency, not as action items. Travis Hunter (JAX, CB) is the most notable LOW DATA case: a 1.0% Model TD% at a LOW DATA tier against a market price of +680 implying 12.8%. The positional designation alone explains the gap. The model is treating him as a cornerback who occasionally lines up in a receiver role. The market is pricing something specific about his usage. With a LOW DATA tag, that 1.0% number is not reliable enough to base a fade on. Joe Fagnano (BAL, QB) also carries a LOW DATA tag at 6.0% with a +1200 market price implying 7.7%.
First Touchdown Board
The first touchdown board is ranked by market price only. The model does not estimate first-touchdown probability, so the Model TD% figures shown next to each player are their anytime numbers, included only for reference. Bhayshul Tuten leads that board at +430 implied 18.9%, followed by Chris Rodriguez Jr. at +450 implied 18.2% and Derrick Henry at +500 implied 16.7%. These prices reflect what the market believes about first-scoring likelihood, not anything the model has evaluated directly. I look at this board as a cross-reference, not a source of plays.
Tonight's single-game slate gives bettors a narrow set of options. Twenty-nine players, two teams, one game. The board has some interesting model-versus-market gaps, particularly around Zay Flowers and Chris Rodriguez Jr., but none of those gaps land cleanly enough for a recommended play. Sometimes the most honest thing I can tell you is that tonight is not the night.
I will be back tomorrow with the full Sunday slate. More games mean more opportunities for the model to find clean spots, and that is where this market tends to open up. Keep an eye on the board updates as injury reports and inactives come in Thursday morning, since any roster movement on a one-game slate can shift these numbers significantly.
All picks are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.
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