The Jacksonville Jaguars arrive at M&T Bank Stadium riding a 5-2 record and coming off a 42-7 dismantling of Indianapolis. Trevor Lawrence is in the middle of the best professional season of his career: 65.7% completion rate, 1,690 yards, 17 touchdowns against 4 interceptions through 7 games, and a 112.6 passer rating. His 48.24% third-down conversion rate is one of the top marks in the conference. Lawrence has also gone 200 or more passing yards in 4 straight games. In 2 career games against Baltimore, he has thrown for 585 yards, 4 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The last time these teams met, in December 2023, Lawrence posted 264 yards and a score. This is a favorable matchup for the Jaguars offense from the first series to the last.

Baltimore's only viable counter is to hand Derrick Henry the football 20-plus times and try to control the clock. Henry carries a career average of 104 rushing yards per game against Jacksonville across 15 career meetings with 16 touchdowns, though that history was built as a Tennessee Titan rather than as a Raven. His last meeting with this opponent, in January 2024, he ran for 153 yards and a score. Jacksonville's defensive front is short-handed: DaVon Hamilton is on injured reserve with a knee injury, and Travon Walker is questionable with ribs. That is exactly the front Baltimore needs softened for a run-heavy game plan to gain any traction. Smith was a full practice participant Tuesday, which at least keeps the Jacksonville defense from being entirely undermanned.

The weather at M&T Bank Stadium is 65 degrees and cloudy, so conditions are not a factor. This NFL primetime matchup comes down to one question: can Fagnano manage the moment long enough to let Henry keep Baltimore in the game, or does Jacksonville take early control and turn this into a comfortable double-digit win?

• Joe Fagnano is an undrafted rookie starting his first career NFL game on a taped ankle. His preseason work earned genuine praise from head coach Jesse Minter, but preseason reps against backup units are a different world from a Jacksonville defense allowing just 15.9 points per game in 2026. An early turnover could blow this game open before halftime.
• Trevor Lawrence has never thrown an interception against Baltimore across 2 career games, completing passes for 585 total yards (292 per game) with 4 touchdowns. He has also gone 200 or more passing yards in 4 straight games this season. Lawrence in 2026 is operating as efficiently as he has at any point in his career, and the opposing starter is a player making his first-ever NFL start.
• Derrick Henry carries a career average of 104 rushing yards per game against Jacksonville across 15 career meetings with 16 touchdowns. That history was built as a Tennessee Titan, not a Raven, but with Hamilton on IR and Walker questionable with ribs, the Jacksonville front is exactly the kind of short-handed unit that can let Henry reach 80 or 90 yards even in a losing effort. His last matchup with this opponent, in January 2024, produced 153 yards and a touchdown.
• Bhayshul Tuten is listed as a non-participant Tuesday with an ankle and foot injury. If Tuten is limited or out Thursday, Jacksonville shifts volume away from the run game and toward Lawrence's arm, which is a push toward the over rather than the under on the total. His game-time status is the most important variable on the total bet.
• Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and 0-3 ATS at home this season. Their confirmed run-first game plan compresses possessions and limits clock. A game scripted as Jacksonville 25, Baltimore 14 produces 39 total points, consistent with the under 40.5. The model and market both project a final total of 40.5, leaving no gap to exploit on this side.
• Brenton Strange has gone over 40 receiving yards in 4 straight games, posting 55, 44, 68, and 95 yards in that stretch. He holds a 21% target share and operates as Lawrence's most reliable underneath option, with nearly a third of his targets going to the short-right zone. In a game Jacksonville figures to control from the second half on, Strange benefits from clock-management drives in the fourth quarter.

The contrarian case deserves honest acknowledgment. Henry's career numbers against Jacksonville are real, and Baltimore is playing the right way by leaning into their ground game. The Ravens are also 0-3 ATS at home this season, so the public has already been fading them. If Henry eclipses 80 yards and the defense generates a stop or two, Baltimore could stay within two scores into the fourth quarter. That is a live scenario. The problem is that Fagnano still has to execute a two-minute offense if Baltimore needs points late, and that is a heavy ask from a player in his first NFL start. The Under 40.5 is a LOW-confidence lean because the model and market sit at exactly the same number. Treat it as a supporting leg in the parlay rather than a standalone conviction play. Bet the spread with medium conviction, back Henry for value at +122, and let the parlay do the rest.

For the full slate, see our NFL picks today and parlay picks.