NFL Odds Week 4 and Picks - Key AFC South Matchup, Clash in Charm City, and Super Bowl LV Rematch

NFL Odds Week 4 - Recommended Bets

• Titans @ Colts: Colts -3, -112 at BetRivers
• Titans @ Colts: First Quarter Total, Under 9 Points, -110 at FanDuel
• Bills @ Ravens: Ravens +3.5, -107 at PointsBet
• Bills @ Ravens: First Half Total, Over 26.5 Points, -115 at PointsBet
• Chiefs @ Buccaneers: Buccaneers to Win, +118 at PointsBet
• Chiefs @ Buccaneers: Buccaneers Under 2.5 Team Touchdowns, -128 at FanDuel

More Than Meets the Eye in NFL Week 4

The NFL odds for Week 4 had to have been challenging to put together for the sportsbooks. The league is a mess right now after more surprising outcomes in Week 3. As a result, NFL picks in Week 4 will be difficult to make without carefully examining games from all angles.

On the bright side, the Week 4 schedule doesn’t disappoint with several marquee games. Looking at the NFL odds in Week 4, only one game is likely to kick off with a spread greater than a touchdown. With a good chance that most of this weekend’s games will be close, let’s take a closer look at our NFL predictions for Week 4.

NFL Best Bets Week 4

Titans vs Colts Predictions

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Sunday, October 2 at 1 pm ET on Fox

The Colts have been impossible to figure out thus far. After a disappointing tie with the Texans and a shutout loss at the hands of Jacksonville, they had the nerve to shock the league with a win over the Chiefs. It’s possible that all they needed was to come home and get a lift from their fans. Even in the win, though, the Colts managed just 259 total yards, rushed for just 82 yards, and allowed Matt Ryan to be sacked five times. Even with the impressive defensive performance in Week 3, Indy’s problems are far from solved.

Data taken from: pro-football-reference.com (Accurate as of 09/29/22)

The Titans are also breathing a sigh of relief after holding on to beat the Raiders 24-22 for their first win of the season. However, that win likely masks problems that are lurking beneath the surface. The Titans were held scoreless in the second half of the win and have managed just one running play of 20+ yards from Derrick Henry, thus putting pressure on Ryan Tannehill, who’s got as many interceptions as he does touchdown passes through three games.

With the Tennessee defense still in rough shape and the Colts still finding themselves with Ryan at quarterback, the first quarter should be ugly and low-scoring. That’s why one of our confident NFL picks in Week 4 looks at this AFC South battle and is that the first quarter will end with fewer than nine points on the scoreboard. However, Ryan and the Colts are more likely to go offensively later in the game. With the Indy defense looking so strong at home last week, look for the Colts to pull away a little in the second half and cover the spread.

NFL Odds Week 4: Titans vs Colts Predictions

• Colts -3, -112 at BetRivers 
• First Quarter Total, Under 9 Points, -110 at FanDuel

Bills vs Ravens Predictions

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens: Sunday, October 2 at 1 pm ET on CBS

The Ravens used to be known for their defense. However, with 143 points conceded over their last two games, that seems to no longer be the case. Now, while there are questions about the Baltimore defense, the Ravens are leading the league in offense, averaging 33 points per game behind Lamar Jackson. In three games, Jackson not only has 10 passing touchdowns (versus just two interceptions), but he’s also got more than half of the Ravens’ rushing yardage (243 on 9.3 per attempt) and both of the team’s rushing touchdowns. Jackson is doing it all.

On the other side, the Bills only rank third in points scored after coming up a little short in their trip to Miami last weekend. Like Jackson, QB Josh Allen is his team’s leading rusher through three games and also leads the league in passing yards, with an average of 338 per game and a completion percentage of 71%. That’s enough reason to remain high on Buffalo despite last week’s loss.

Given the offensive fireworks created by both teams early in the season, one of the safest NFL picks in Week 4 is for the first half to end with more than 26.5 points. That requires four touchdowns in the first 30 minutes, which is far from a stretch for these two teams. As for the result, the Bills have yet to win a road game against the Ravens in five previous attempts. Plus, neither team is likely to pull away from the other based on how each has performed offensively. That means they’ll stay close enough to beat the spread even if the Ravens can’t pull off the win.

NFL Odds Week 4: Bills vs Ravens Predictions

• Ravens +3.5, -107 at PointsBet
• First Half Total, Over 26.5 Points, -115 at PointsBet

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sunday, October 2 at 8:20 pm ET on NBC

With each team coming off losses, there is pressure on both sides to win. There’s also an added pressure on Tom Brady to prove he’s not over the hill, distracted by his personal life, or anything else. The Bucs are averaging 17 points per game and so far have failed to score more than 20 points in a game, with Brady throwing just three touchdown passes. The good news is that Tampa’s defense remains the best in the league, conceding just nine points per game.

The Chiefs also face some questions about their offense after getting stifled by the Colts in last week’s 20-17 road loss. Of course, it’s unlikely that Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense struggling becomes a regular occurrence. At the same time, the Chiefs aren’t creating a lot of explosive plays on the ground, which leaves a ton of pressure on Mahomes to do it all, which could be tough against a defense as strong as Tampa’s.

Even against the Chiefs, Tampa’s defense is good enough to make the Bucs an excellent home underdog. Brady and company nearly forced overtime last week against the Packers and could have better luck in this Super Bowl LV rematch. Our NFL picks in Week 4 see this as a low-scoring game in which the teams will settle for more field goals than they’ll score touchdowns. With the Tampa offense not yet firing, we’re also leaning toward the Bucs scoring fewer than 2.5 touchdowns in a low-scoring game that forces them to win ugly.

NFL Odds Week 4: Chiefs vs Buccaneers Predictions

• Buccaneers to Win, +118 at BetRivers
• Buccaneers Under 2.5 Team Touchdowns, -128 at FanDuel

NFL Odds Week 4: Summary 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

What did we learn from Week 3 in the NFL?

Perhaps the only thing we learned in Week 3 of the NFL season is that the league is as unpredictable as ever. Teams with high hopes for the season, like the Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, and Buccaneers, all lost. Meanwhile, the Giants, Jaguars, and Bears all ended Week 3 with a winning record.

Who is a sure bet for Week 4 in the NFL?

NFL picks in Week 4 won’t be easy, with virtually every game having a point spread of less than a touchdown. The safest bet to win is Green Bay, who are at home against the Patriots, who will be without starting quarterback Mac Jones.

Conclusion

NFL Week 4 promises some highly competitive games against intra-division matchups. What do you think of our NFL week  predictions? If you're interested in more football content, be sure to read our guide: How To Bet on American Football, and visit our odds comparison tool to compare the latest NFL Week 4 odds.

Be sure to check out our NFL Week 5 Preview to stay up to date.

Written by Bryan Zarpentine.

Bryan has been a sports and sports betting writer for over 12 years. When he's not writing about sports, he's usually watching sports, attending sporting events, or on road trips on his way to sporting events.  

Bryan is an NCAA football and basketball specialist who gives excellent insight into MLB and the NFL worlds.