NFL Week 5 Odds and Picks - Vital AFC East Matchup, AFC North Clash in Charm City, and Kansas City Home to Las Vegas

NFL Odds Week 5 - Recommended Bets

• Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets: Jets +3, +100 at Caesars
• New York Jets to Win, +155 at BetMGM
• Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens: Bengals +3, +100 at PointsBet
• Baltimore Ravens Winning Margin: 1-6 points, +260 at BetMGM
• Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs Over 30.5 points, +100 at BetMGM
• Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs: Over 51.0 points, -107 at PointsBet

NFL Week 5 Odds Figure to Be a Challenge

The NFL odds for Week 5 had to have been challenging to compile for sportsbooks. The league is slightly upside-down after a few more unpredictable outcomes in Week 4. Add in a few injuries, and NFL picks in Week 5 will need a bit more careful examining and some thought.

On the bright side, the Week 5 schedule brings the heat with several marquee games. Scanning the NFL Odds Week 5, Buffalo has that two-touchdown spread against Pittsburgh. However, there are several rival games, all within one score. With a solid chance for more close games this weekend, let’s dive into our NFL picks for Week 5.

NFL Picks Week 5

Dolphins vs Jets Predictions

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets: Sunday, October 9 at 1 pm ET on CBS

The Jets have been a mess to figure out thus far. After awful home losses to the Ravens and Bengals, they decided to jolt half the NFL betting world with a comeback win over the Steelers. The Jets even ruined the debut of Kenny Pickett in the second half with two key interceptions. Despite the win, the Jets needed four Steelers interceptions, rushed for just 98 yards, and got Zach Wilson to wake up in the fourth quarter. Even with a solid defensive performance in Week 4, the Jets must figure out playing at home.

Data taken from: pro-football-reference.com (Accurate as of 10/04/22) 

The Jets are one weird team to figure out when it comes to NFL Week 5 odds. Their defense plays better at home. For those wondering, New York gives up 151 yards a game rushing against the rest of the AFC North. New York makes half the mistakes they do on the road (three compared to six). The Jets were a minute away from being held without a touchdown at home the entire season. Joe Flacco threw a stat-padding score late in the 24-9 opening loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

Then there are the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are 3-1 but will be without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa this week (concussion protocol). That’s why one of our big NFL picks in Week 5 is the Jets to win this game outright. New York knows Miami QB Teddy Bridgewater well since he was a Jet briefly in 2018. Knowing his limitations should help the defense slow down Miami’s wide receiving duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle just enough for Zach Wilson and the Jets to notch home victory No. 1 on the season.

NFL Odds Week 5: Dolphins vs Jets Predictions

• Jets +3, +100 at Caesars 
• Jets to win, +155 at PointsBet

Bengals vs Ravens Predictions

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens: Sunday, October 9 at 8:20 pm ET on NBC

The Ravens were once stout on defense, and for one half, they were against the Bills last Sunday. However, the 13 points allowed in the second half were terrible enough. Then the offense went inexplicably cold. Buffalo came in with a top-three defense in the league since the start of 2021, but no one expected Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to put up a bagel at home over the final 30 minutes. 

The Bills dared Jackson to beat them with his arm, but he just could not. Jackson was held to under 150 yards passing, and the rushing attack stalled for the Ravens. Now, the Bengals come into town with questions of their own. However, the Bengals defeated the Dolphins 27-15 in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football. It was another solid performance for Cincinnati regarding turnover differential (+2). The Bengals were +3 in a Week 3 win over the Jets. 

On the one hand, NFL Week 5 picks become dicey here because teams often try to run on Cincinnati. Passing-wise, they ranked third lowest in attempts seen but are fourth in yards allowed rushing. Baltimore is typically a team that is predicated on the run. After all, they ran for 162 yards last week at home against Buffalo. The Ravens will run no matter the odds.

Given the offensive firepower shown in glimpses by both teams early in the season, one of the safest NFL picks in Week 5 is not the first half over but that the Bengals stay within a field goal. The Bengals have again looked better the past two games and turned the ball over less. That should keep them close, and Baltimore has allowed teams to stay close, too (see Miami and Buffalo at home). 

As for the result, the Ravens have yet to win a home game in two attempts. Plus, neither team is likely to pull away from the other based on how each has performed offensively. That means they’ll stay close enough to beat the spread even if the Bengals can’t pull off the win. Also, taking a risk for Baltimore to win by six points or less at +260 is worth a shot, as the Ravens should get their first home win of the 2022-23 season in our NFL Week 5 picks.

NFL Odds Week 5: Bengals vs Ravens Predictions

• Bengals +3, +100 at PointsBet
• Ravens Winning Margin 1-6 points, +260 at BetMGM

Raiders vs Chiefs Predictions

Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs: Monday, October 10 at 8:15 pm ET on ESPN

With each team coming off wins, there is still pressure on the Raiders to win since they are 1-3. There’s also an added pressure on the defense to produce a bit more. The Raiders are allowing just 25 points per game and so far have not allowed more than 30 points in a game. While that is not terrible, something seems off. They have generated just three turnovers and were more lucky than good. The Melvin Gordon fumble that changed momentum was more happenstance than anything.

The Chiefs still face some questions with their defense after yielding 31 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Of course, it was far nicer to see Kansas City spring to life behind Patrick Mahomes for 41 points. Even better, the Chiefs were balanced. They ran the ball 37 times and threw it 37 times. That led to their best rushing effort of the season, racking up 189 yards.

Even against the Raiders, Kansas City’s defense may just give up some late points. Look at last week how Tampa Bay and Tom Brady produced a late touchdown in each quarter to pad that point total. Our NFL picks in Week 5 see this as a higher-scoring AFC West game in which the teams will score more touchdowns than settle for field goals. With the Raiders offense firing well (32 points last week), we’re also leaning toward the overall over of 51 points and the Chiefs over 30.5 points. Expect this to be a fun up-tempo game that should help our NFL odds for Week 5.

NFL Odds Week 5: Raiders vs Chiefs Predictions

• Chiefs team Over 30.5 points, +100 at BetMGM
• Over 51.0 points, -107 at PointsBet

NFL Week 5 Best Odds

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Who will win in Week 5 of the NFL?

The safest bet to win during Week 5 of the NFL season is the Buffalo Bills, who opened as 14-point favorites over the struggling Pittsburgh Steelers. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can also be considered a safe bet to beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 5.

Who will be the NFL’s top performers in Week 5?

Saquon Barkley is currently the NFL’s leading rusher. In Week 5, he’ll face a Green Bay defense that allowed 167 rushing yards last week, setting up Barkley as one of the league’s top performers this week. Nick Chubb is also one of the top offensive players in the NFL through Week 4. This week, he’s facing the Chargers, who allowed 131 rushing yards on 14 carries to Houston’s Dameon Pierce last week, which should set up Chubb for another big game.

How do the NFL Divisions work?

The NFL is divided into eight divisions of four teams each. Both the NFC and AFC have four divisions each. Every year, each team plays two games against each team in its own division. The winner of each division is guaranteed a playoff spot regardless of their record.

Conclusion

NFL Week 5 gives us some marquee AFC East matchups, promising a lot of action. What do you think of our NFL week 5 picks? If you're interested in more football content, be sure to read our guide: How To Bet on American Football, and visit our odds comparison tool to compare the latest NFL Week 5 odds.

Written by Chris Wassel.

Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who loves sports irrationally. He has covered everything from NHL to NASCAR to March Madness, including a couple of Stanley Cups, several NHL Drafts, and award shows.   

He is a veteran writer with over 30 years of fantasy hockey experience, contributing to several sports books and countless publications such as USA Today, The Hockey News, and Sportsnet.